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Not in real dollars. When I was a kid a single scoop ice cream cone was a
nickel. Today that same cone is $1.65 and the quality isn't as good. For there
to be equality the dow would have to be between 15,000 and 28,000. The best
deal around by comparison is a hamburger, 15 cents versus 99 cents at McD or
B.King. Of course once again there is a quality and size factor. As they say,
you can never go home again and this may be an old man reminiscing, but
everything depends on your reference point. The same with trading, trend is
strictly dependent upon your time frame reference. Good trading and a good week
end. Ira.
Robert Moore wrote:
> Scaletrading commodities can also wipe you out.
>
> A technological advancement can completely change the pricing paradigm of a
> commodity. The price won't go to zero, but it could fall 95% and never
> recover.
>
> The case I have in mind is aluminum. There was a time in the 1800's when
> the wealthy kept their aluminum plates alongside their gold and silver
> plates. Aluminum was over $100 an ounce, if I remember correctly. Then
> the Hall effect was discovered, which allowed Aluminum to be extracted
> cheaply from aluminum oxide ore, which is extremely abundant. Aluminum has
> never gone back up.
>
> With rapid advancements in biotechnology and nanotechnology, I forecast that
> by 2050 several commodities trading today will lose most of their current
> value, never to return.
>
> Robert
>
> P.S. As was pointed out, scale trading individual stocks is risky -- Even
> more dangerous than scaletrading commodities, IMO. If you put a gun to my
> head and forced me to scale trade something, I guess I would have to pick a
> broad market index, like the S&P -- The market always comes back sooner or
> later.
>
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <Scaletrade@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <ist@xxxxxx>
> > Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 12:43 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: OPT - averaging down on MSFT leaps
> >
> >
> > > I agree with you on one point for sure. I would be very reluctant to
> > > scaletrade stocks. Commodities, however, will never go to zero...almost
> > > guaranteed. Certainly there are still problems: carrying costs,
> > commodities
> > > that trade down to below multiyear lows, and stay there incredibly long
> > > periods of time, etc. But overall, most of my nicest profits have come
> > from
> > > scaletrading commodities. Of course that doesn't keep me from still
> > working
> > > on other approaches.
> > >
> > > Larry
> > >
> > > In a message dated 04/13/2000 11:53:16 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
> > ist@xxxxxx
> > > writes:
> > >
> > > > Scale trading makes one very bad assumption. That what goes down must
> > at
> > > one
> > > > time go back up. That isn't always the case. And if it goes up, it
> > might
> > > > not go
> > > > up far enough to bail you out. I am personally familiar with one
> party
> > > who
> > > > scale
> > > > traded into 250,000 shares of stock and is still down over
> $1,000,000.
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