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A view of the ND100 (June) suggests the decline is not complete. General
guideline for w.4 correction is minimum ABC and a w.4 is generally
complex in both time in price. Let's look at the weight of the evidence:
a) Guideline for w.A is a 3 or 5 wave decline - not clearly visible
b) Guideline for w.B is 3 wave rally - not clearly visible
c) Guideline for w.C is a clear 5 wave decline - not clearly visible.
Even if we move to a 60 minute chart we may see a w.A, w.B is not at all
clear, and w.C is clearly incomplete. Further, if we consider time
relationships ala Robert Miner, w.4 is most often 100%+ of w.3 which was
over 24 months - this leaves a lot of weeks left to go. The pattern will
be revealed to us as the market dictates, however the current weight of
evidence favors the view that w.C is not complete and that the current
ABC is probably an initial leg of a larger corrective pattern. Should
price reach below 3191, there will be justification for the view that
the pattern is not an ABC but rather an incomplete 5 wave pattern which
will define the initial w.A.
In the final analysis, EW gives us a tentative roadmap on which we pick
and choose our trades. The road map is always subject to revision as the
market unfolds and the alert analyst will continuously adapt to fresh
information. Thus the EW should not be viewed as a forecast but rather
as the best available roadmap to which probabilities can be attached to
provide a trading edge.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <ROSOW@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 6:53 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Nasdaq
> In a message dated 04/13/2000 3:43:35 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
> joe6964@xxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > For the Nasdaq Comp. I have a support of 3438-3432 and a CIT for ~
4/14-4/
> > 17,
> > 4/19, 4/24
> >
> > TradeWell,
> > Joe Frabosilio
> Hi Joe,
> My #'s and dates are matching yours - Lenny
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