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Generally, I am finding this to be an incredibly difficult time to trade
in all of the markets and I've been very selective in where I trade and
where I invest. Equities market is not the only place where things could
get ugly ... non-treasury bonds/note and commodities are potential
trouble areas. Copper has a high correlation with economic cycles and
weakness here is of considerable concern. Rates on high grade corporates
have steadfastly refused to accompany treasuries in the decline which
indicates either a) increased risk perception or b) decline in treasury
rates does not reflect real economic activity. Any downturn in US
equities is likely to lead world markets lower (at least for a while)
and that is unlikely to be bullish for consumption generally and
commodities specifically.
One thought you might keep in the back of your mind when looking for
turning points in the NASDAQ is that markets which go parabolic
frequently require extended corrective times to compensate i.e. the down
cycle will be longer than it "should" be in time because the up cycle
was steeper than it should be in price. This phenomena is exhibited in
monthly charts in almost all of the major commodities.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 6:24 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook.....Question for Earl Adamy
>
> In a message dated 4/13/00 4:51:34 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
> eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> Best guess is that we'll get a modest rally and then continue the
> decline with ND leading the way. Since ND 3191 is another 10% south,
the
> scene could get ugly with panic taking ND to the next (and most
likely)
> price target at 2457. Bottom line, unless we get an overwhelming
> reversal in NASDAQ breadth, any rally here (3948 or 4014) is likely
to
> provide a shorting opportunity.
>
> ***********************************
>
> Thank you Earl for posting your thoughts. While I tend to agree with
> you here,...particularly that NASDAQ breadth may in fact be the
deciding
> indication as to whether we are starting an advance,..or resuming the
decline,
> ...I personally am bothered by the fact that longer term (40 wk) cycle
> suggests a LOW for secondary (NASDAQ) type issues next week,...during
> the week of 04-17 to 04-21. The week of 04-17 to 04-21 is 40 weeks
from
> the 07-16-99 high, a significant time from an intermediate to longer
term
> perspective. Other (separate) methods point to this timeframe as
being of
> longer term significance. Also interesting that short term,... 04-18
is a
> Full
> Moon. Prior to your post,..I had been open minded to the week
upcoming
> marking an important interm to longer term turning point. My bias was
to
> look for a move UP from this timeframe,..with small caps and NASDAQ in
> the lead as those stocks most affected by 40 week cycle. However,
your
> bias seems to be that any rally from these levels is a selling
opportunity and
> that we might see much lower on NASDAQ. So that is important for me
to keep
> in mind. I really respect your work, and would like to ask you to
keep
> sharing your near term thoughts during this seemingly important week
> upcoming.
>
> Thanks again most sincerely. Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
>
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