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Thursday and Friday are looking critical! ND's Wednesday low was just 6
points above the 3644 level which I had indicated would be critical and
the NASDAQ breadth models are showing a _modest_ bullish divergence.
Bottom line - I suspect that a rally could be at hand; however I want to
see an overwhelming turn in a/d issues and a/d volume (like 10:1 up
volume to down volume) before I become a believer since the ND price
chart clearly suggests that a decline to 3191 is in the cards. The NYSE
models remained positive (still on buy), however they continue to
weaken.
Best guess is that we'll get a modest rally and then continue the
decline with ND leading the way. Since ND 3191 is another 10% south, the
scene could get ugly with panic taking ND to the next (and most likely)
price target at 2457. Bottom line, unless we get an overwhelming
reversal in NASDAQ breadth, any rally here (3948 or 4014) is likely to
provide a shorting opportunity.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 6:36 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook.....Question for Earl Adamy
> I posted an update over the weekend (8April) which I hope made it to
the
> list (see below). As I remember, in my 31March post, I indicated that
> 1493 was an expected minimum for w.4 and a close below 1432 would
> nullify the entire EW structure implying that the structure would be
ok
> if 1432 held on closing basis . The decline got within a couple of
> points of 1432 before rallying sharply which left the EW structure
> intact but not without severe damage. As I wrote after the decline,
> the effect of the steep decline was to significantly lower the
expected
> minimum target for w.5 from 1623 area to the price range of the
previous
> high (1563 to be specific). Normally, I would look to the 60 minute
> chart for a clear 5 wave internal structure for the w.5 on the daily,
> however I don't see it and we seem to be rolling over from the 1543
> high. Since my NYSE models have begun to roll over (although still
> healthy) and there is no clear impulse structure, my current thinking
is
> that we are probably in some type of corrective pattern which would be
> broken by a violation of 1503. The sharp decline has done a great deal
> of technical damage to the price structure of what appeared to be a
new
> impulsive structure beginning 29Oct on the weekly ... the rally from
the
> 03March (weekly) low should have been fast and powerful. I think we
will
> have to wait and see now if SP consolidates and makes another attempt
or
> takes out the 03March low and heads south indicating that the stock
> market does not remain invincible to the old interest rate step and
> stumble rule. The index I'm watching now is ND (June) along with my
> NASDAQ breadth models. If 3644 holds with a marked improvement in
> breadth, things will look better. Next in line is 3191 which should be
> the maximum decline for a correction ... anything more and we are
likely
> in an impulsive decline.
>
> Earl
>
> 8April Post:
>
> NYSE model remains on buy but divergences are beginning to appear in 2
> of the 3 NYSE breadth models and Friday was a NYSE daily reversal day,
> intermediate term NYSE model still in good shape. NASDAQ model managed
> to climb into buy territory, however the intermediate term model
remains
> in poor shape and we did not look to buy NASDAQ. AGet PITI on June SP
> has declined to 33 which appears to confirm the 1563 projection I
posted
> last week indicating that SP is more likely to put in a double top
> rather than new highs on this trip up.
>
> As we took money off the S&P table early this week, we nibbled on
> Vanguard Intermediate and Long term corporate index and REIT index
> funds. Balance of S&P index will be sold on either NYSE sell signal or
> rally to 1560 area in June SP.
>
> On trading side, looks like a bit more weakness ahead in commodities
but
> nothing major. We liquidated long side of hedged May sugar
> Thursday/Friday and kept the short side for a pullback and will
re-enter
> long December if correction doesn't run too deep. Watching W, BP, and
JY
> for possible longs. Also eyeing possible exhaustion gap in HG - copper
> is at critical juncture. A rally through the gap could indicate a
> sustained rise ahead and strength in the economy while a new low could
> signal recession.
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
> To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2000 5:14 AM
> Subject: Market Outlook.....Question for Earl Adamy
>
>
> > Hello Earl,...
> >
> > This is Jim Pilliod. I appreciated your 03-31 detailed "Market
> Outlook" post
> > so much I printed it out and saved it in my notes. In that post you
> had
> > described the 1493.50 minimum target for a corrective Wave 4,...etc.
> > My question is: Did last week's big drop on Tues 04-04 complete (or
> > invalidate)
> > the Wave 4 count and would you think that we are in the process of
> building
> > Wave 5,...etc. In other words,..for the S&P500 how do you see
things
> here?
> >
> > My work suggests a pivot here,..today 04-11, as is 17 mkt day count
> from
> > 03-17, was 17 mkt days from 02-23, which in turn was 17 mkt days
from
> > 01-04 ...all key pivot dates. I am open minded to a turn to the
> upside for
> > the
> > S&P500 here. Also the Bradley Model too has low 04-10 with up into
> 04-18.
> > The 04-18 to 04-19 timeframe looks to be the next VERY IMPORTANT
> > time frame, as indicated by a variety of different methods. So my
> bias is
> > to look for up into the 04-18 time frame. Just my personal
> thoughts,...
> > likely wrong,..etc.
> >
> > If you have time for a brief post, I think it would be appreciated.
> > Thanks again for openly sharing you work. And have a good week.
> >
> > Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
> >
>
>
>
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