[RT] RE: crude

["Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>opinion on the future direction of the following markets-

>crude

Should find a bottom right here (24.15 or so) in the May contract. Either
the bottom has been seen yesterday or we see a spike low bar seen around
bottom formations (as in the Dow Oct 1987 or Oct 1998) or a narrow range bar
(see intraday 5 minute chart of last Tuesday's SnP).

The spike low bar, if it happens, will be the widest range bar seen on this
downtrend.

Typically these spikes define the culmination of the downtrend.

If it does turn out that the bottom is here/close, this chart then looks to
rebound to $28, then trade in a range of swings from $28 to $25 in
essentially 3 moves over the next couple of months without testing the lows
seen this week (or of the upcoming spike low bar).

The breakdown from this trading range should then take CL to test its Oct 99
lows of $20.55 give or take.

The above pattern would then complete a picture known as George Lindsay's 3
peaks and a Domed House.

This is a position trade pattern and am afraid no use for short term (few
days) trading.

The term structure suggests that the upside on Crude is generally over (ie
$34-$35 highs won't be seen for a few years) and rallies will be sold by
speculators and major declines will be bought by commercials (hence
essentially a multi-month trading range).

If the above scenario is not true:

This may sound whacky but I would monitor the more recently popular
name-your-own-dotcom chart for clues to where CL goes.

See how strongly the analog charts of crude and name-your-own-dot-com stock
chart correlate.

Gitanshu

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