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I posted this on 3/26
"I have been working with using the concept of Brownian Motion (measuring
Log drift and Log volatility) to predict the direction of an Index (in
this case the OEX). This seems to be a useful tool in predicting the
short term movement of a security (index). The attached .gif is an
example of using this analysis. The actual OEX close from 3/13 to 3/24
is plotted along with Brownian Motion forecast for the same period (3/13
to 3/24) and the 10 day forward prediction of price direction movement. I
must emphasize that this does not reliably predict a price level (at
least I can not do it), but it does give a good indication of price
direction. Based on this I am looking for a downward movment of the OEX
this week."
I ran an update on this forecast tonight and have attached a copy of the
gif
Ron McEwan
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\Oex Actual1.gif"
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