[RT] AN END OF HEDGING?

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

Collapse in P/C ratios is a concern for me.... Daily Index P/C ratio was 
below 1.0 last 5 market days of Feb, ahead of S&P500 short term 1409 
high 03-03.  Again, ..03-23 Index P/C ratio .894, below the 1.0 level.  
Importantly,....the CBOE Weekly P/C ratio (from Barron's P. MW68) at 
0.36 (Previous weeks: .37, .35, .36, .36) all very close to my 0.34 threshold 
for market topping level. 

This collapse in P/C ratios indicates to me that hedging has ended,..and 
should be "negative" for equity prices from a contrary perspective. Weekly 
AAII Survey 65.71% bulls, vs. 20% Bears (ratio 3.29:1) clearly 
"overbelieved".  
Note Consensus 53% Bulls on Bonds (TYX = 5.99%) is upper end vs only 
21% Bulls on Bonds on 01-21 when TYX = 6.71%.  Rally in bonds likely 
extended.  Bottomline,..Bond's reversal 03-24 (USM -1^04), with S&P500 
little changed, and Oil price up ahead of Monday's OPEC production 
decision, suggests downside pressure S&P500 likely near term. 

Intermediate term,..downside risk appears greater than upside,...I am open 
minded to "sideways to lower" into April 03, then another leg down into late 
April or mid-May.  Basically this upmove from early March is likely a B Wave 
of a larger A-B-C correction. 

My expectation for a downmove near term is the result of concerns based on 
seeing big speculation evident everywhere:  OTC/NYSE volume at record, 
..collapse in P/C ratios, Margin Debt surge to record level (again a chart 
from Ned Davis research on Barron's p.5), narrow leadership, ALL suggesting  
the current rally off the early March low is "hollow", likely inspired by 
short 
covering and based on daily measures of sentiment, close to complete.

Barron's (03-27) p.30 "The Morning After" article (worthwhile) correctly 
notes 
past 5 rate hikes: "..by the time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, 
the news is already priced into the market.  It's the subsequent weeks, 
when strong economic new gets released that investors should fear".  Past 
year pattern suggest risk is for a move lower after rally into most recent 
03-21 
rate hike.

Would appreciate the thoughts or views of others.  
Have a good week.  Regards,