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My work suggests that gold is likely to retest 279 basis June and I
seriously considered going long some puts a week ago. However when
everything was considered, I did not see a high enough probability in
price and time to warrant buying premium, especially in gold pit. I
consider gold to be a highly volitile and manipulated market and the
gold pit is a great place to get scrweed. I only trade gold when I see
extremely high probability trades such as the 3+ month consolidation
long setup last September and the 2 month consolidation long setup which
I mentioned here in late January before the breakout. While I did put on
a fully hedged position in silver the other day, it is minimal in size
and appears to offer high probability of a dynamic move.
Earl
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