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<BODY><B>Sunday March 19, 4:21 pm <SMALL>Eastern Time</SMALL></B>
<H2>Internet companies running out of cash - Barron's</H2><!--rf|953500860--><!-- TextStart -->
<P>NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - At least 51 Internet firms will run out of
cash within the next year, according to a Pegasus Research International study
commissioned by Barron's and reported in its March 20 edition.
<P>The report listed online music store CDNow Inc. (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cdnw&d=t";>CDNW</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/c/cdnw.html";>news</A>), network security company
Secure Computing Corp. (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=scur&d=t";>SCUR</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/s/scur.html";>news</A>), online health Web sites
drkoop.com Inc. (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=koop&d=t";>KOOP</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/k/koop.html";>news</A>) and Medscape Inc.
(NasdaqNM:MSCP - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/m/mscp.html";>news</A>), and online grocer Peapod
Inc. (NasdaqNM:PPOD - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/p/ppod.html";>news</A>) as among companies likely to
run out of funds soon.
<P>The report said that many companies will not succeed to raise cash by issuing
more stock or bonds, and may be forced to sell out to stronger rivals or go out
of business altogether.
<P>Online retailer Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amzn&d=t";>AMZN</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/a/amzn.html";>news</A>) was another company that
appeared on the list. Barron's reported that its cash will last 21 months.
<P>The report also cited Amazon and Internet venture capital firm Internet
Capital Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=icge&d=t";>ICGE</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/i/icge.html";>news</A>) as companies whose share
prices are trading significantly off their highs, making raising new funds that
much more difficult.
<P><!-- TextEnd -->
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<TD><B>More Quotes<BR>and News:</B></TD>
<TD>
<UL>
<LI>Amazon Com Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amzn&d=t";>AMZN</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/a/amzn.html";>news</A>)
<LI>CDnow Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cdnw&d=t";>CDNW</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/c/cdnw.html";>news</A>)
<LI>drkoop.com Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=koop&d=t";>KOOP</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/k/koop.html";>news</A>)
<LI>Internet Capital Group Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=icge&d=t";>ICGE</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/i/icge.html";>news</A>)
<LI>Medscape Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mscp&d=t";>MSCP</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/m/mscp.html";>news</A>)
<LI>Peapod Inc (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ppod&d=t";>PPOD</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/p/ppod.html";>news</A>)
<LI>Secure Computing Corp (NasdaqNM:<A
href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=scur&d=t";>SCUR</A> - <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/s/scur.html";>news</A>)</LI></UL></TD></TR>
<TR vAlign=top>
<TD colSpan=2><B>Related News Categories:</B> <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/n/z/z0008.html";>health</A>, <A
href="http://biz.yahoo.com/reports/stocks.html";>US Market
News</A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JW</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Mar 19 20:29:24 2000
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From: "JW" <JW@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Technical Tidbits
Date: Sun, 19 Mar 2000 20:14:01 -0800
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Status:
Pulled this off the PrudentBear
(http://www.prudentbear.com/bbs/index.cgi?) web chat site. One person's
tech analysis...
JW
---------------
Technical Tidbits
Posted By: John G. <dexgard@xxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, 3/19/0, at 8:34 p.m.
03/19/00
Let's deal with the NDX first.
1. This end of month could turn into open warfare. Remember
that professional fund managers hate each other. Especially
deep are the jealosies and hatreds between the momentum
managers and the rest. What is happening is that the "momentum
concentration managers" (those who invest in a very few high
momentum stocks) such as Janus funds and others have become
hopelessly trapped in losers like AMZN, of which Janus owns
10%. Janus and the the other momementum concentrators have no
choice but to defend AMZN buy purcasing more, they cannot
possibly sell without cratering their relative performance.
2. Problem is, the non-concentrators, who have broadly diversified
holdings of momentum stocks know this. From the tape action
described below, it looks like they are beginning to sense a
source of ready cash and an opportunity to sink their hated
rivals by selling to the concentrators. Look for wild
action at the end of the month.
3. The 8dma of NAS up volume crested on 03/09 at 1251 (that's
1.25 billion shares) and dropped like a stone to 914 on
Wed. and barely budged to 928 on after two wild up days. Note
that the 3dma of NAS up volume peaked on 03/02 and has
been setting lower lows and a lower high since. The 3dma
(now at 949) has to rise above 1183 (the previous lower
high) before we can confirm a continuation of the NAZ
intermediate term up trend.
4. NAS new highs minus new lows crested at 364 (WSJ figures)
on 03/01 and have been moving down dramatically since. It
is a larger and nastier down move than the one which began
01/24, and this time the down move in NH-NL began a full
week and a half before the down move in price. The wild
upmoves on 03/16 and 03/17 left the 3dma of NH-NL still
headed lower and the daily total still negative and still
below its third lower high set on 03/14. The internals
appear to be deteriorating.
5. NDX new highs peaked on 03/06 at 29, set a lower high on
03/10 at 26, fell to 0 on 03/15, and have only moved back
to 2 on 03/16 and 03/17 despite a massive 390 point, 9.6%
upmove from the bottom on 03/16. The NDX internals are
also deteriorating. and the recent 2 day rally has done
nothing to improve them.
6. The ultimate question is how the fully invested bears
will react to the above situation. Anyone who thinks they
will not avail themselves to the opportunity to stick it to
Janus and some of the other "momentum concentrators" is
exceptionally naive.
7. The clincher for me was the surprisingly low NAS volume
of only 1615 shares (WSJ figures) on a Friday's triple witch
expriation day. NAS volume also peaked on 03/01, along with
NAS new highs, and the 3dma has been falling since. Friday's
low volume sent the 3dma plunging again. Needless to say,
I am skeptical about the prospects of any sort of sustained
NDX rally from here. Something is afoot and I suspect that
the "fully invested bears" are watching these numbers too.
If they see the opportunity I think they see, we will have
a wild end of month reallocation, with Janus and the others
desperately defending their performance with borrowed cash,
while the "fully invested bears" plow Janus's cash into the
non-tech OEX type stocks.
8 For a long time, the hedgies favorite "market neutral"
straddle was long NDX short SPX. You can see their footprints
in the persistent "large speculator" net short position
in the SPX futures over the past 18 months in the committment
of traders report. Over the next two weeks, I would suggest
Long OEX-DOW-NYSE short NDX.
9. All of this could change very quickly on Mon and Tues,
but the odds right now are against it. The odds favor wave
C down early next week in the NDX, and more over the rest
of March. Note that while the last two days of NDX rally
have turned the Decisionpoint NAS STO sideways, the NAS
ITBM and ITVM are still headed south. Time for caution.
Now for the OEX - SPX.
1. Trends in NYSE up volume, NYSE advancers and NYSE
NH-NL are all positive.
2. Having noted the positive internals, I should also
note that the Decisionpoint STVO and CVI have become
extremely overbought, as is TRIN.
3. The chart of both the NYSE and the unweighted NYSE
both look like they have put in a 3 wave "regular flat"
correction since their highs of July 1999, and could be
embarking upon a new upleg. Doubtful, but possible
according to the wave patterns.
4. Another possibility is that the NYSE - DOW are
completing wave C of an upward corrective structure
which began Feb. 25, and will be commencing a new
downleg of a bear market within a few days.
5. We shall know the answer shortly.
6. The government likes to ignore financial sector
debt in its statistics, because these are mere
"intermediaries". However, there is now nearly 8
trillion in financial sector debt, all of which
is borrowed short and loaned long, and depends upon
a postively sloped yield curve. With each Fed Funds
increase this debt becomes less and less profitable
and more and more precarious. At some point, you
would expect this to show up in the financial sector
that is so heavily weighted in the SPX, and to show up in
slower growth in financial debt, total debt and
in GDP. Thus, I suspect more corrective waves in
this massive topping formation, and not a new
implusive wave up in the NYSE. But we shall know
shortly.
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