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Trying to look at China objectively is like trying to look at pre-Nazi
Germany objectively. However, simply looking at China from a geographical
point of view without a great deal of knowledge or inside information about
China's internal affairs. China is surrounded by potential enemies Russia,
Japan, India, Taiwan, South Korea to name a few. However, being surrounded
by enemies has not stopped a country from going to war in the past.
Because of China's colossal population, chances are that the use of nuclear
weapons by China's foes would be much more likely. Unless new technology
weapons could do the job against those masses. In my opinion China in the
end would lose to a world allied against her. Will stupidity triumph and
China's leaders go to war? Maybe. Stupidity has happened before. If China
had a real brain they would make peace with Taiwan, allow them their
independence and take full advantage of the commerce and benefits that a
non-adversarial relationship could make possible.
As far as whom ever is President of the USA, if it becomes politically
logical to make war with China that President's bias would change in an
instant.
I haven't got a clue as to how to trade this sort of information except that
the usual rules apply. What is the first rule of trading success? How about,
always preserve your capitol.
Prosper
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