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HI RTs,
Talking about Geo-politics, I think China does have a point. Many great
powers in the history had a ocean fleet. Remember Czarist Russia?
Czarist Russia pushed to reach Black Sea for hundreds of years in order
to have warm water ports to build her fleets. I read an article that
quoted an interview: it said China could not even enter Pacific Ocean
if it did not conquer Taiwan. It makes sense. Without taking Taiwan,
China cannot build a Pacific fleet. At the moment, Pacific Ocean is in
America's sphere of influence. If China wants to be a great power, it
will challenge this situation. (China claims it does not want to be.)
Historically, "Chinese killing Chinese" in civil wars has been the rule,
not the exception. Keep that in mind. I am a Chinese but what can I
say? If Taiwanese government allows a vote on "independence or re-join
China", China will declare war right away. So, Taiwan people don't have
a voice in this issue, although this issue is somewhat related to their
livelihood.
Economically and financially, don't under-estimate the global effect.
Remember that small nation named Thailand and its resulting effects in
1997 around the world?
Mervin
Dan Harels wrote:
>
> If you believe Jane's, China is not equiped to invade Taiwan and won't be
> for several years. They could, however, lob a few missles in that direction
> and they are a nuclear power. The problem is that conflict in Taiwan would
> create uncertainty and uncertainty breeds fear and fear breeds panic.
>
> Dan
>
> >From: HBernst963@xxxxxxx
> >Reply-To: HBernst963@xxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: [RT] Re: remember Saddam
> >Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:55:48 EST
> >
> >Wouldn't an invasion of Taiwan just create more demand for U.S. chip
> >companies? Since invading Taiwan would not affect the oil supply, what's
> >the
> >problem?
> >
> >Howard
> >
> >
>
> ______________________________________________________
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