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Personally I'm better off just following the signals. If you think the
market is risky you won't trade the setups that work. And just when you get
really bullish and decide to take the trade you will get screwed. In my
experience anyway.
The trick for me is NOT to try to figure it out. Consider that nobody can,
not even leading economists or talking heads on cnbc. So if you try you'll
just end up randomizing something that by itself has some good statistics.
Besides, if you're wrong you can trim the loss if you like. The amount of
risk is up to you, not the market. Now please pardon me for pontificating!
rgds phil
----- Original Message -----
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <patterntrader@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 8:41 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: markets/outlook for 5-10 days
> All that is true as well. And it most likely is what will happen I
presume. Only
> I look at risk reward, and I see my risk component go through the roof,
which is
> why I think at times it is wise to stay back and wait till things are back
to
> managable moves. It also depends on your means: In my case, if I am not
paying
> attention here, I could easily get a big blow. I have had enough of these
in the
> past, and no longer wish to try every move, chase every trade. Hence I
prefer
> chosing calmer moments, and make sure I can play again tomorrow, no matter
what
> happens, even if this means missing out on 10% performance.
>
> Gwenn
>
>
>
> Phil Lane wrote:
>
> > Forgot to mention the sp had a follow-through day yesterday on the 6th
day
> > after the recent swing low - also a confirmation of a bottom. A similar
> > thing happened last October.
> >
> > Both markets gave off buy signals. Over the past few days the SP has
been
> > playing catchup as the nasdaq took a breather. But overall it has much
> > higher relative strength so that's where I focus.
> >
> > This is very specific stuff with measurable statistics, not that it
couldn't
> > be refined further. But it does eliminate the need to think about other
more
> > subjective issues. Unless you enjoy uncertainty and confusion!
> >
> > fwiw,
> > phil
> >
> > p.s. with yesterday's setup in the Nasdaq about 1/2 the time they will
never
> > look back but other times they will spend several days filling in the
"tail"
> > of the signal day, i.e. retesting the low before going up - this
wouldn't be
> > out of line with Earl's model - and once in a while the market will make
a
> > lower low!
>
>
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