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Ira Tunik wrote:
> Is this one of those rip roaring bear market rallies that will take us
> to about 11,000 and then they pull the rug out? It isn't real yet even
> though a lot of money can be made in a contra trend trade. Ira.
Precisely what I am wondering about. Everyone knows how to buy dips by now.
It has become such a sure thing strategy that one of these days it's going
to burn people badly. At the present stage, I have mixed feelings. We are
getting close to the summer, and I don't really expect the massive capital
inflows to hold on during the summer, which would pull the rug from under
current levels. In the meantime it still looks like the early January
situation:
Tech slaughtered, old economy stocks behaving like net stocks jumping 10%
around, then people slowly back into tech, then agressively into tech and
dumping old again. For the moment we are seeing part 1 and now 2 and 3,
curious to see if 4 happens all over again.
One indicator: Our back office clercks bought biotech funds agressively in
the last two days.
Now they made good money this and last year, but they make it sound as if
it were easy. Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. That's the difficulty:
to know when to be prudent, and when to be like a pig. And it is much
easier to be like a pig when you are in control, and not when the market is
in control of you. hence my idea that it is not necessary to be always
involved in the markets, and that at times when one has no clear edge, it
is best to withdraw or reduce so as to remain in control precisely.
Gwenn
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