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Yes, spring brings a seasonally unfavorable time for tech stocks, so does
the third quarter....because....the major brokerage houses downgrade semis
and computers in May and June most every year in anticipation of a weak
third quarter. Then they upgrade them again at the end of the third quarter
just in time for the fall/winter conferences, new product releases, etc.
BR
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, March 16, 2000 3:48 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: SP and NASDAQ
> NYSE model remains on a buy with bullish a/d volume and hi/lo
> divergences at this week's lows. Price work suggests that SP will retest
> the previous high, however probabilities do not favor any significant
> move above the previous high. NASDAQ model remains on a sell, however
> the trend remains up and we are probably close to a bounce. The fact
> that all NASDAQ daily breadth indicators have moved into extremely
> negative territory suggests that the correction will probably resume
> following a bounce. Note that spring brings a seasonally unfavorable
> time for tech stocks. DJ appears to be attempting a w.4 rally which
> might get close to 11000. For now anyway, old economy stocks appear to
> be the strongest.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, March 12, 2000 8:04 AM
> Subject: [RT] SP and NASDAQ
>
>
> > I had a NYSE buy signal on Thursday's close, NASDAQ sell signal on
> > Friday's close so it's a mixed bag. Obviously, NASDAQ is extremely
> > extended and subject to a major reversal at any time, however my daily
> > and weekly breadth models continue to show a reasonably healthy
> market.
> > Although the primary NYSE trend remains down based on 30w MA, the NYSE
> > daily and weekly breadth models have been improving a bit in health
> > (especially volume which is often a good early indication) and I
> suspect
> > we are seeing some bargain hunting among the old economy stocks. Jury
> is
> > still out on whether the recent bottom in the SP and DJ will hold -
> > momentum at the last low suggests not, however I suspect that there is
> a
> > bit more upside to this rally.
> >
> > Because I have the breadth models, SP is the only market in which my
> > trading is not based solely on price/volume patterns. Looking solely
> at
> > SP price, I see that this rally has lasted longer than the previous 2
> > rallies and that we have made a higher low and Friday eked out a
> higher
> > high. I am looking for a high (Monday?) around 1445 followed by a
> > decline which will resolve if this rally is an ABC correction or a
> fresh
> > impulse structure. If 1367 (June) holds, we are in a w.3 and should
> see
> > new highs in SP.
>
>
>
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