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DLR/YEN
A test of jy 103.48 Mthly system support is possible
before the dollar starts the next leg of a humungous rally...
on its way to a LongTerm target of JY 278 (into Nov 2002).
Interesting to note that after a market breaks above its
DownTrend Line, it frequently reverts back to the area
of the breakout before moving dramatically higher.
This is exactly what is taking place now. Everything seems
to be falling into place. The Nasdaq is getting ready to
fall off a cliff, so there may be some limited downside to the
USD down to JY 103.48, but only a mthly close below 101.28
would cause any real damage to the USD.
STOCK MKTS GLOBALLY ARE AT HUGE RISK. As chaos
reigns in all mkts, investors will be looking for a safe haven
in the USD. A bad PPI number on Thursday could send
BONDS south in a hurry. Look for the currently inverted
Yield Curve to revert to "Normal" as bonds sell off and 2 yrs rally.
As stocks take a beating globally, the FED will raise rates
only once on Mar 21 by 25bps, then go neutral to perhaps
even an easing mode, depending on extent of stock market
slide.
BOUND FOR VEGAS
Please expect no more emails this week.
I will be in Vegas giving a speech to the Institute of
Scrap Recycling Industries. I know this is a heck of a time
to be away from the mkts, but if you really need to know
our levels as the financial markets begin to fly all over
the place, you might consider calling us (609) 987-0600
and buying a fax or email of a daily report for $25.
Our reports provide a complete list of support
resistance levels which you may need when things
get crazy.
NASDAQ
CAVEAT VENDITOR: Again a wkly close above 4800
basis the March Nasdaq 100 (5200 on the Composite)
will suggest a rally into end of April/early May...a blowoff.
Breaking below 4323 onTuesday or below 4354 on Wednesday
basis the March contract will set the Nasdaq into what
we call in technical terms..."the Wile E. Coyote effect."--The only
reason this mkt hasn't already fallen---"much"--- is that traders
have yet to look down. Once they do, expect a quick 50% slide.
As they trample each other to the exits, they may
move into the beaten down DOW/S&P stocks. DOW could
test 10820 (nearest future) and still be vulnerable to
another leg down. Likewise, S&P could rally as high
as 1470.00 and still be vulnerable to another leg down.
Then again, all 3 mkts might head south together.
Globally stk mkts are at HIGH RISK! Today's Asian
slide was not the end of something...it was the beginning.
LET CHAOS REIGN!!!
Again if you would like more detail on the market of
your interest, just call us to set up an account:
(609) 987 0600
You can also set up an account online at:
http://www.pei-intl.com
----
JW
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