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There are no guarantees except that the target will move and the path to the
target will adjust as the target moves. Eventually they coincide. Its part
history and part probability and that is about as close as a trader can get.
The uncertainty principle assures that the target will move if it were
known. No doubt there are vested interests who would like to see a specific
price or zone to minimize their liability and maximize their profitability
but there are a lot of players now and some are big enough to move a stock
or half a dozen stocks or fewer and thus an index. The theory in the beasty
indicator is that clues are left in the path of price and the future is seen
to some degree by implied volatility. In most cases the target zone narrows
as expirtion approaches.
BR
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Bruch" <jbruch@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, March 11, 2000 7:16 AM
Subject: Re: GEN - expiration
>
> Wait a minute... is the green line guaranteed to stop moving? Will the
> green line still be at 780 in 5 days?
>
> JB
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 8:48 PM
> Subject: [RT] GEN - expiration
>
>
> > A trader sees the strangest things on the way to expiration. This
little
> > beasty indicator tries to zero in on the OEX as expiration approaches
> using
> > a combination of historical data and implied volatility and time decay.
> > Either the red line or the green line will zero in on that Friday close.
> At
> > this point with 5 days to go my inclination is to vote for 780 only
> because
> > Clyde voted for the redline at 700 with his swing technique.
> >
> > BR
> >
> >
>
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