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Charles,
When it comes to technical analysis, over the years I have come to develop
definite prejudices. On longer time scales (such as the chart in question)
I prefer to look at prices on a semi-log chart. But you make a good point
. can I prove semi-log trend lines superior via backtesting? No, I
cannot.
Marlowe
----- Original Message -----
From: charles meyer <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: <marlowec@xxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 10:26 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Of 1929 and chart patterns...
> Marlowe:
>
> It seems that one could debate the 'log versus arithmetic' scale issue
> with both sides having strong points; probably because the visual
> aspect is an element which is in the eye of the beholder. I think the
real
> issue is whether is if your log trendline concept could be backtested?
How
> many times has a drawn trendline been tempor-
> arily penetrated only to have the price continue upward.
>
> Chas
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Marlowe Cassetti <marlowec@xxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, March 10, 2000 9:59 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Of 1929 and chart patterns...
>
>
> >One simple method is to draw a trendline on these rising stocks and sell
> >when they pierce the rising trendline. I found this effective in
capturing
> >most of the profits in such situations. Don't fit the trend line too
close
> >to the parabolic rise or you will also stop out too early. Also draw the
> >trendline on a log scale chart to get a better picture of percentage
> >changes.
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 2:09 AM
> >Subject: Re: Of 1929 and chart patterns...
> >
> >
> >> Well, I don't know if we are in 1929bis or not, but even the strongest
> >> trends may break down out of the blue:
> >> Look at Softbank and Hikari Tsushin, in Japan. Even blue chip net
stocks
> >may
> >> lose 50% from the highs on no news...
> >>
> >> I know, because, remember I lighted up on Nasdaq few weeks ago..., well
> >many
> >> of those I sold rose, those I kept sometimes rose, but many fell, like
> >> Softbank... Fortunately I also bought some others which did OK, which
> >> compensates...
> >>
> >> Question: What is your best strategy for exiting net stocks so that one
> >> reaps most of the upside without sacrificing too much on the way back
> >down?
> >>
> >> Gwenn
> >>
> >>
> >> Earl Adamy wrote:
> >>
> >> > Some months ago I posted a pair of charts for the pre-29 and current
> >> > periods with some 20 years of history from the last major retracement
> on
> >> > each chart - around 40%. The charts featured the percentage
retracement
> >> > of each significant dip. The two sets of charts show the same pattern
> of
> >> > decreasing percentage retracements. This bull pattern is longer. The
> >> > post-29 chart shows a series of increasing retracements. There is
> little
> >> > doubt in my mind that eventually the post-current chart will follow
the
> >> > post-29 chart, however I'm not ready to call a top until I see the
> >> > whites of the bear's eyes.
> >> >
> >> > Earl
> >> >
> >> > ----- Original Message -----
> >> > From: "Marlowe Cassetti" <marlowec@xxxxxxx>
> >> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx@realtraders.com>
> >> > Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2000 9:55 AM
> >> > Subject: [RT] Re: Of 1929 and chart patterns...
> >> >
> >> > > Interesting pattern of similarity. How does it look if you did it
on
> >> > a log
> >> > > scale?
> >> > >
> >> > > ----- Original Message -----
> >> > > From: Gitanshu Buch <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > > Sent: Wednesday, March 08, 2000 2:54 PM
> >> > > Subject: Of 1929 and chart patterns...
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > > > Maybe not, but we are back again to the 1929 scenario
> >> > > > > When I don't know. I just do what the charts tell me.
> >> > > > > Any more depressing news and I may hang it up for the week.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Ira,
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Its called "you asked for it" <g>
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Here's a chart pattern for the historically inclined...
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Take it for what its worth. Haven't seen one of these since the
bad
> >> > old
> >> > > days
> >> > > > of 1997 when we had similar looking HKSE comparisons galore on RT
> >> > and on
> >> > > the
> >> > > > web.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > This is partly in jest, partly a dead serious FYI.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Gitanshu
> >> > > >
> >> > > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >>
> >>
> >> ---------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >
> >
> >
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------
>
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