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In a message dated 3/9/00 12:24:10 PM Pacific Standard Time,
ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< Jim:
I made my first trade in an international fund yesterday. 1/2 of the money
in that account. The way I see it I may do the other half today if we
close
up here. The 8 - 9 am price was lower. Any adverse thoughts let me
know.
Norman E.
>>
(03-09) Hello Norman,...No adverse thoughts whatsoever,...good for you.
Yesterday (03-08) was a good entry into International type funds,...
as upside follow-through appeared likely. At the close 03-08, I exited the
S&P500... and went 100% long into International "Growth" type funds,...
and I held those 100% longs at today's (03-09) close. For both today as well
as yesterday,..the decision to be long overseas was based on the afternoon
advance in the U.S. having been as yet unseen by any overseas markets:
Wedn 03-08 Thurs 03-09
11:30 AM 4PM 11:30 AM 4PM
Dow + 50 +60.5 -12 +154
SP500 + 0 +11.1 + 9 + 35
NASDAQ - 80 +49.2 +40.6 +150
NOTICE ON BOTH DAYS,..THE NASDAQ CLOSED SOLIDLY ABOVE THOSE LEVELS WHICH
EUROPE SAW WHEN THEY CLOSED earlier in the trading day.
With so many International "Growth" funds owning Telecomm,..Tech, and Media
issues,..the NASDAQ has become the focus of my end of day decision.
If NASDAQ is substantially above where Europe saw it when they closed,..
then it is likely Tech,..Telecomm,..and Media shares will similarly rise when
they re-open the following day on overseas markets,...yet you can buy them at
their previous day's close using mutual funds. Also,..strong Techs in the
US increase likelihood of upside in Japan as their Tech issues take their
lead from
Wall Street's activity.
So being long overseas markets tonight and tomorrow morning,...any risk
ends around 11:30 am EST when Europe closes. If we were to see selling come
into NASDAQ issues tomorrow after the noon time frame,..I would exit my
long International Funds positions. Other wise,..as long as our end of day
levels are above those which Europe saw when they closed I will stay long
overseas markets, using International type mutual funds.
Something to keep in mind. Often when US equities come under pressure,..
the US Dollar also drops,..which serves to bolster the NAV price of
International
type funds, making for a good exit from long positions. I mention this as
the tendency of the US Dollar to decline in synch with US equities it is a
"fire escape"
of sorts in my mind,..and has bailed me out of a long International Funds
position many times.
By the way,..I am looking for a short to Intermediate term Pivot for the
S&P500 in the 03-10 to 03-13 timeframe. This is based on a confluence
of methods all indicating this time frame as being a likely Change in Trend.
Kris Kaufman of Parallax Financial Research (a friend) has Monday 03-13 as
Parallax Long Scale Turn #2 for year 2000 (Turn #2 out of 6 turns total).
Also indicating this timeframe as signigicant is the Bradley Short Term Model
which
has a high 03-12. Also 03-12 is 13 mkt days from 02-23,...in my mind
increasing the likelihood of a change in trend date. There are more detailed
measures of
price and time which indicate 03-10 as a likely pivot date as well.
Bottom-Line,
.the Friday 03-10 to Mon 03-13 time is a likely change in trend. My bias is
to expect a HIGH,...with a turn to the downside.
Any comments or feedback much appreciated.
Norman,...Sorry I did not reply to your post sooner,..have been spending time
outdoors (except for the middle and end of trading day) with warmer weather
arriving here in Connecticut.
Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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