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Dan:
The problem is that you are using these silly CPI and PPI numbers and the
oddly packaged ex this and that that has been so popular these days. If you
want to look at the real costs facing people these days, the CPI and PPI are
practically useless. How many of us think that tobacco products qualify as
CPI components? Am I qualified to say that? I think so. My graduate economic
work was done at the University of Chicago at a time when they had the best
economic minds in the world teaching and mentoring there. This economy is
generating inflation and if you want to rule out counting asset inflation as
a cause for inflation, that's your choice. It's wrong. But go ahead.
I also worked on several BLS revision studies--so I know quite a bit about
economics as it relates to labor, as well. And wages are rising rapidly.
You'd better start looking at total labor costs. They are running high and
are going to go much higher. Where I live [the north shore of Chicago],
there are simply no workers available for most jobs. None.
You choose the statistic. I'm fairly confident it will show lots of upcoming
inflation. But maybe you don't need to use energy, health facilities,
food....
Best,
Tim Morge
Daniel Goncharoff wrote:
> Let's cover some of the comments:
>
> The price of investment is not considered part of inflation. Therefore
> stock prices, or house prices, for that matter, are not looked at.
>
> Whether we have inflation or not is a function of supply and demand. If
> oil prices are going up because of a short term restriction of supply,
> it is not something AG should be responding to. If they are going up
> because of an increase in demand, he should respond. Which is it?
>
> I find it funny that the element of inflation considered most important
> is the one that no one has mentioned yet - - labor. If wages were rising
> rapidly, AG would be pulling that punchbowl away so fast he'd spill half
> of it.
>
> Anyone know what the 3 year average increase in prices has been
> (including food and energy - - I agree that the cherry picking is silly,
> it just gives reporters something else to write about)?
>
> Regards
> DanG
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