[RT] Re: mkt outlook (short term)

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

In a message dated 3/5/00 7:36:39 PM Pacific Standard Time, 
Proffittak@xxxxxxx writes:

<< with vix at this levels and  short term mkt. overbought
 i would  put tomorrow Max up in SP  10
 but down min 20 if not more >>

Hello Ben,...for what it's worth,..very short term I am looking for a 
Change in Trend day on Monday 03-06 New Moon,..S&P500 at 
upper channel resistance,..and short term indicators overbought.
Index P/C ratio has been very weak with NASDAQ making higher 
highs,...players reluctant to short.  

Bigger picture concerns included:

1.  NO FEAR.  Over past years when market declines were 
marked by big drop off in % Bulish Investment Advisors (per
Inv Intell Weekly Survey),...but not so with the current decline.  
S&P500 dropped almost 10% from it's high,...and we still had 
over 50% Bulls on Inv Intell survey,..and the % Bears remained 
low as well.  Weekly CBOE P/C ratio from Barron's this week at
0.36,...very close to 0.34 threshold I use for longer term important
signals.  Again,..confrming everything else,..basically "overbelief".

2. The OTC-100 is in a rising wedge pattern,..suggest BEWARE...
usually a terminal patern, typical resolution is downside break.

So lack of bearishness at recent bottom suggest it was not a "final"
low.  I am now open minded to lower lows over recent weeks in S&P500,..
especially if OTC-100 breaks down through lower wedge uptrend support. 

Thanks for the short term outlook post.  JIM Pilliod  jpilleafe@xxxxxxx