[RT] Lower Overseas Follow Through Likely Tonight....

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

For RTr's interested in trading overseas followthrough...

Several requests have been made (by recipients of the paper
I made available on the subject),...for an example of the daily 
decision making process.  Here are personal thoughts I used 
in deciding what to do at today's close... 

Note:  I am EXITING International funds at the close today,..
moving to money market for reasons including:

1. US equity markets trading below levels whch Europe saw
    at their 11:30 am EST close....Dow +59,...S&P500 +6,  and NASDAQ +44.
    Upside overseas follow through (although it could happen) is not highly 
likely.  

2.  JAPAN  not likely to trade higher tonight either...Nikkei Mar futures 
(last at 
    19080) are trading -85 pts below prev. cash close 20065,...suggesting 
     likely limited downside,...but firmer US  Dollar today may be a positive 
    for Japanese exporters,...but weaker Techs in US should be a much 
    stronger influence,..net    result,..nothing compelling suggests imminent 
upside.

3.  Most overseas funds with Tech,..Telecomm,..and Media exposure had 
     moved up sharply last few days,...and I am looking to lock in that gain. 
    Their move has been in synch with NASDAQ in US.  Inability of NASDAQ 
    to move above the level which Europe saw at their close (NASDAQ +44)    
suggests likely move for overseas Tech,..Media,..Telecomm FOR 
    TOMORROW is lower.  At least nothing suggests an imminent move 
    higher is likely.

That's it.  A fairly simple thought process.  

With regard to why enter the money market here,..as opposed to entering 
the S&P500 at today's close,...again,..these are my personal thougths 
on near term direction for the S&P500:

4.  Wedn 03-01 likely turn date (Sun/ Merc conjunct) as 13 mkt days 
from 02-10,...pivot in key series off 01-04 low.   For S&P500 next
short term low likely Friday 03-03 (per Short Term Bradley plot) or 
Monday 03-06,..  which is indicated by a myriad of methods as being 
KEY TURN date.  Again,..this is very short term analysis.  (New Moon
also 03-06).  Also 03-06 is 48 mkt day low count from 12-23,...which 
was 48 mkt days from 10-15,...08-10,..etc.  My bias is to expect 
weakness next two days into Monday 03-06...again,..a simplistic 
approach,..just my personal thoughts.

5.  After 03-06 the next time to watch is Fri 03-10 into Monday 03-13 
(03-14 one method indiactaes) again indicated as important from a 
confluence of methods.  (03-12 is short term high per short term Bradley 
Model plot.)  My thought is that from there a LOW would be likely in the 
03-17 timeframe,..which is 17 mkt days from 02-23,...was 17 mkt days from 
01-28,.. etc. off 01-04 low. 

6.  So bias is to expect S&P500 weakness into 03-06,..sideways to up 
into 03-12,..and a low around 03-17.  Just personal thoughts, in my own 
trading this is just one tool in the box.

7. Index Put/Call ratio of past two weeks has been horribly weak,..
implying outright "overbelief",...this has been "nagging" at best.  My 
thought 
was that players would be unlikey to buy Puts with the NASDAQ making 
higher highs,..etc. As tech strength continued,..the Put/Call ratio would 
remain weak.  Today's Index P/C ratio (most recent) was a healthy 2.17 
(normally a short term positive).  Note the NASDAQ weakness today.  So the 
P/C ratio 
here is more or less reflective of NASDAQ activity than it is a "predictive" 
tool as in the past.  

Any thoughts on any of this much appreciated.  For 
those of you who asked,..hope this post satisfies your 
curiosity.  Enjoy the rest of the day.  Best Regards,..

JIM Pilliod  jpilleafe@xxxxxxx