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* Yes, the treasury yield curve is signaling an economic slowdown, but
one wants to keep an eye on the corporate yields as well and I'm not
seeing the radical shift in the corporate short/intermediate/long term
bond indexes.
* Janus can do what they want, but Ru2000 is outperforming SP, SP 500
Barra Growth is outperforming SP 500 Barra Value, and Ru2000 Growth is
outperforming Ru2000 Value. Says to me there is zip/zero/nada shift to
value. Frankly, I doubt that value investing will outperform growth
investing until growth stocks are discredited by major investor losses
across the board in growth stocks and that probably will take a market
crash.
* Under my investor hat, where market risk is a major concern, index
investing at Vanguard is still outperforming the market while
eliminating single stock event risk. The managers at Vanguard do not
want big shifts in fund flows so they haven't announced that investors
should shift from the big cap funds to the small cap funds. However at
the beginning of this year, I suggested that the Vanguard Small Cap
Index Growth fund would handily outperform the market. I picked up a 17%
gain in a 30 day period selling when my market model turned negative.
The VSCIG fund has continued to rise since I sold it. Not exactly ND,
but then I won't even trade the ND futures much less invest in them. I
will add that on the _same_ dates that I bought and sold the VSCIG fund,
I bought and sold a Small Cap Growth _managed fund_ in a relative's
pension plan and that fund _lost_ 2% in the same period. Needless to add
that the Vanguard fund levies something on the order of a .25% fee while
the managed fund levies nearly 2.0%.
* What index was used to prepare the attachment? I have NASDAQ Composite
closing at 4590 and NASDAQ 100 closing at 4178, a big difference from
the 3446 cited in the attachment.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 3:14 PM
Subject: [RT] NDX: More soap, less bubble
> The yield curve inversion gains traction signalling a slower economy
ahead,
> but the stable cyclicals, drugs and consumer stocks (which are
supposed to
> rally when an economy threatens to slow) fall huge anyway.
>
> Janus, the God of Growth, gets into Value. Their prospectus says
"those
> stocks that the market is wrongly abandoning". Huh? Wonder what
happened to
> "the market is always right"... and I wonder if the use of the term
> "Strategic Value" in its title is a licence to underperform for
extended
> periods of time.
>
> The numbers, thus, are hardly what I would call a "narrow market". and
I
> imagine this once, non-index funds did much more for their investors
than
> index funds by a wider margin of participation - regardless of what
the
> folks at Vanguard would have me believe re the perils of not indexing.
In
> mony management, clients take away your money if they see someone else
doing
> better. Even for a year.
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