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Dear John -
I don't dislike your definition. That implies a personal relationship to
a definition, or to you, neither of which I have (and that is not meant
to be a positive or negative). I disagree with the definition based on
what I have seen as the market's definition of what a bear market is. I
certainly do not define anything by the prior year's low. It is from
swing high to swing low. Oh, and as for technical versus fundamental, I
use both too, although I find fundamental analysis of specific equities
useless for trading, but useful for investing.
As for making money, the definition of bull or bear is irrelevant. My
trading horizon would be dependent on neither definition.
Regarding the market, I have important support in the 1327/1324 range in
the S&P. Below there probably suggests a top of pretty large degree is
in. To wit, I'd expect a strong rally from above 1300 that could take us
back close to 1400, but would ultimately expect to see a bottom near
1100. The Dow shows every sign of having topped, but due for a strong
rally too. I expect a bottom there in the mid-8000 range. As for the
NASDAQ, I look for a rally over 5000, probably mid-5000 range as the Dow
and S&P rally short-term. After that, for the next leg down, I'd look
for NASDAQ to under perform.
Regarding the S&P versus the Dow, the compositions are different now.
Much more tech stocks in the S&P, so no real reason for it to trade in
the same ratio at this point. The S&P used to look more like the Dow.
Now, it might be a high beta Dow, but not sure since I have not done
enough research on it.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>; <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>;
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 11:43 AM
Subject: : Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> Dear Steve,
>
> I am sorry you dislike my opinion so much.The fact is that the summer
of '98
> did miss the 12.5 % and below mark.
>
> Likewise the pain of those who experienced '97 was that of a short
lived
> Bear market in a strong economy.Technofiles seem to judge it by a
prior
> year's low which is not real world to me.That is a catastrophic
occurrence.I
> am a Techno - Fundamentalist and I see technical and fundamental
factors
> that have merit.
>
> A correction is up to 12.5 %.Beyond is a Bear to me and I have never
failed
> to make money by that rule.
>
> Barron's has had some fine articles over the years and I still often
trade
> stock split announcements off them based upon timliness and market
> action.But the "National Enquirer of Finance"...come on.
>
> If people laugh at you it does not make you wrong.
>
> Now that we know you disagree with me,what is your take on the market.
>
> Respectfully,
>
> John
>
>
> >From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: "Dr. John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> >Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2000 11:24:21 -0500
> >
> >True, the definition is vague, but if we went by grad schools, we'd
> >really be in trouble! They also believe in the efficient market
theory.
> >And, since when was fundamental analysis worth anything at all? A
> >CORRECTION is usually considered to be around 10% in the Dow more
often
> >than not, especially when it is over 2-3 months. A bear is not 12.5%
in
> >such a short time frame. As for Barron's, they have all the
credibility
> >of the National Enquirer. While the definition is vague at best,
12.5%
> >does not show up on the radar screens for bear market.
> >
> >By your definition, we missed a bear market by 0.2% last summer, and
had
> >one from August-October 1997. I know virtually nobody that even
> >considers the summer of 1998 a bear. When I suggested it was among
the
> >many professional market analysts I know and have worked with, I was
> >ridiculed. To suggest that 12.5% is a bear, if you are using the Dow,
> >makes little sense. That it is a bear market by almost any standard
for
> >the majority of all stocks is a different story, especially since it
has
> >been that way for a year or more. I am just commenting that the 12.5%
> >figure for the Dow is not in line with market practice. Market
practice
> >is not always right, admittedly, but ya gotta go with those
definitions.
> >
> >There might be some texts that say 12.5%, but maybe they are based on
> >historical periods when the normal range for the market per year was
> >much less wide than it is now. I certainly would not say such texts
do
> >not exist, but just because you read it in a book, does not make it
> >correct. And, if you read it in Barrons, it is probably wrong (LOL).
> >
> >---
> >Steven W. Poser, President
> >Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> >
> >url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> >email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >Tel: 201-995-0845
> >Fax: 201-995-0846
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>; <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>;
> ><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 11:01 AM
> >Subject: Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> >
> >
> > > Dear Steve,
> > >
> > > I beg to difer with you.Because I am the first person you have
heard
> >this
> > > from does not mean it is not true.
> > >
> > > It is based upon Fundamental analysis from Grad school profs and
texts
> >as
> > > well as many fine articles from Barrons before they were "trendy".
> > >
> > > It is a judgment call even by your standards.
> > >
> > > Respectfully,
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >To: <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>, <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Subject: Re: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> > > >Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2000 09:03:00 -0500
> > > >
> > > >John -
> > > >
> > > >You must be the first person that I have ever met to call 12.5% a
> >bear
> > > >market!
> > > >
> > > >There is no exact definition for a bear market, but the general
ones
> > > >are:
> > > >
> > > >1) At least 20% drop in the Dow.
> > > >
> > > >2) Some put a timeframe on it too. A shallower drop in the Dow
can be
> > > >considered a bear if it takes a long time. If we were down 15%
over a
> > > >period of a year or so, it might be categorized a Dow, though
even
> >then,
> > > >many would probably just call it a consolidation.
> > > >
> > > >Almost NOBODY considers the drop in 1998 a bear market since the
Dow
> > > >never CLOSED down 20%. They do not even consider it a CORRECTION
> >until
> > > >it is down 10%.
> > > >
> > > >---
> > > >Steven W. Poser, President
> > > >Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> > > >
> > > >url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> > > >email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >Tel: 201-995-0845
> > > >Fax: 201-995-0846
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 11:44 PM
> > > >Subject: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold
stocks
> >since
> > > >I was
> > > > > 16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill
Lynch]
> > > >these are
> > > > > my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
> > > > >
> > > > > 1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a
> >12.5%
> > > >Dow
> > > > > decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
> > > > >
> > > > > 2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest
> > > >rates.And
> > > > > T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
> > > > >
> > > > > 3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
> > > > >
> > > > > 4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out
the
> > > >Strategic
> > > > > Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point
in
> >time
> > > >to be
> > > > > funded.
> > > > >
> > > > > 5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
> > > > >
> > > > > 6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived
and
> >if
> > > >this
> > > > > one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad
> > > >economies I
> > > > > believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
> > > > >
> > > > > 7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by
parameters
> > > >never
> > > > > before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and
even
> >beyond
> > > >that.
> > > > >
> > > > > 8.Ditto the micro caps.
> > > > >
> > > > > 9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and
> >actually
> > > >ate crow
> > > > > on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very
well.
> > > > >
> > > > > My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have
you
> >are
> > > >these:
> > > > >
> > > > > A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
> > > > >
> > > > > B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
> > > > >
> > > > > C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
> > > > >
> > > > > I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio
> >which I
> > > >had
> > > > > sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose
any
> >sleep
> > > > > because value returned and so did the total value of my
portfolio
> >and
> > > > > more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
> > > > >
> > > > > Sincerely,
> > > > >
> > > > > John
> > > > >
> > > > > P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal
right
> >now.
> > > > > Merck just to name one.
> > > > > ______________________________________________________
> > > > > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > ______________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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