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The OEX has exhibited remarkably consistent 8 (blue boxes) and 12 (red
boxes) month cycles for several years. If this pattern continues to develop,
normal behavior would call for the OEX to test the lower trendline in the
vicinity of 640 in about 8 months. This would represent approx a 20%
retracement from recent highs; a bear market by some standards.
Highs have occurred around 3/4 of the way through these cycles. If this
pattern holds, the high for the year should be about 6 months out.
Patterns, of course, are subject to variation. If the lower trendline is not
tested, this would suggest the market will go to new highs. If the trendline
is violated, the next substantial support level is another 160 points (20%)
lower.
Stan
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