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Could well be, but at market tops, the leaders turn around without warning
signs in the middle of what looked like a nice ongoing trend up. Often they do
so violently.
I am not saying this is a top, just saying this is getting too difficult for
me, sort of being long gold at 700 before its top at wherever that was. I am
certain, we will see these prices again this year or next. The high RS
companies are typically great companies, but everything has a fair price, and
to me we are way past that level.
If I were sitting on a few billions today, I wouldn't chase it now, I'd just
sit back and watch. So I don't chase it with my far more modest means either. I
don't need to pick the top, I just need to get the big middle part, and to me I
got fair share as it is, I leave the (for me) too dangerous part. Whenever
money flows in this quick, my experience has shown it is time to be very
prudent. Whenever great opportunities just abound, it is time to be real
aggressive. For my taste, it is time to be patient again, at least in the US
and the European tech markets. It is only 6 months ago, that companies were
pulling IPOs "en masse" for lack of demand, and now I should pay 5 or 10 times
the price? I just let it go slowly...
:-)
Gwenn
Phil Lane wrote:
> Gwenn wrote:
> > That's it for me...
> >
> etc etc
>
> But wait! Leading stocks continue to be in demand. At least they were as of
> yesterday. No reason to sell them while they're still going up (unless you
> have several hundred thousand shares to move).
>
> Just be alert for signs of distribution in the nasdaq. Stuff like heavy
> volume without upward progress, or a key reversal off a high on an increase
> in volume. Also watch for climax runs in individual stocks. So far so good.
> Of course all this could change very fast!
>
> rgds phil
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