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Chuck,
Thanks for your comments.
Kondratieff wave theory holds that particular classes of investment perform
better or worse in particular stages of the cycle. Great bull markets in
equities are expected to end at the extreme right edge of the right shoulder
of the wave. Great bear markets in equities are expected to end coincident
with the end of the wave.
Many posts on here have definitively called the top of this market and
predicted an immediate crash only to watch the market charge off on a new
advance. I see that the bears are out in force again: see the "Deeper
correction ahead" posts today.
Kondratieff wave theory may help to explain why these predictions have been
premature, and when a crash may be more likely to occur.
Stan
> -----Original Message-----
> From: CRLeBeau@xxxxxxx [mailto:CRLeBeau@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2000 1:21 PM
> To: sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] The big picture: Kondratieff cycle
>
>
> In a message dated 2/21/00 8:04:08 AM Pacific Standard Time,
> sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> <<
> Notice that cyclical highs in equity markets tend to occur after K cycle
> highs - usually near the end of the K cycle.
> >>
>
> How big is your sample to be able to make this conclusion? If
> you have 1200
> years of data you are reasonably safe. (30 times 40 yrs) More would be
> better.
>
> If this trade is wrong will you get a second chance in your lifetime?
>
> Chuck
>
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