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<DIV><FONT size=2>All I can say is that I traded off the data I had and I made
the decisions accordingly. I do not know why your data would show the
exact inverse to mine and I wonder if anyone else on the list can throw some
light on the matter. I have not been to the CBOT website to check, but I
am sure my data is not that far out - a tick or two maybe, but not a completely
different set of data.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This brings up an interesting point, however. Assuming
my data was correct, what does that do to your Gann fans? I know
nothing of Gann or how you set it up on charts, let alone read and rely on it
for actual trading. My own concept is based on what the market has
actually done, in terms of resistance and support levels. I find it
essential to work from what traders have actually exectuted, where they have
bought and sold in the market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Having said that, I most certainly measure retracements
with Fibonacci numbers, as my standard. But such measurements have
to be tempered with what is actually in the market - the resistance or support
points, as they have developed and are rated, as it were, by the
pit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>On the day in question, the market opened and formed
(according to the tick data coming in on my machine!) a bullish wedge just below
a most significant line of resistance. It took a couple of bars to break
through the initial line of the flat top of the wedge, then, whooosh, straight
through 95^10, which was the pivotal high of the 3rd February.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>\once it broke through there, it was going to be plain sailing
- bar a couple of very bullish retracements up to what turned out to be a pretty
good Double Top. But such was the momentum of the move, it turned out that
the 'reversal', when measured as the market moved back and flattened with a Doji
Sandwich, as I call it, turned out to be a bullish retracement. The rest,
as they say, is the history of my previous post.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have to say that I have never studied Gann, nor know
anything about squaring this or that or projecting fans and lines and so
on. I find I can only rely on what I believe to be the only thing to
rely on - price action and what has actually happened as a result of buying and
selling in the market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>But, I do have to say, that one has to rely on accurate
data. If mine was wrong (which I doubt, from the way the market moved, in
accordance with reasonable expectation) I would have got into the market a
little later i.e. the breakout of the intraday high, according to your
chart. In other words the bar that broke the pivotal high - it would just
not have been such a good fill!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Bill Eykyn</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>www.t-bondtrader.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Prosper
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 23, 2000 7:39
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] FUT: Trend is a friend, ...
How about that Gann simplicity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Since the simplicity of Gann is being critiqued. Here is the
same days 5<BR>min. data with Gann simplicity on it, although for reasons
known only to the<BR>data makers and vendors, not the same data. If you bought
each time a higher<BR>high and higher low signal was verified it would have
been a good day. You<BR>can see how price rebounded off of the various Gann
Fan lines.<BR><BR>Prosper<BR><BR><BR><BR>> Everyone wants to step onto a
trend at the beginning and step off at the<BR>end, pocketing the profit!
The trouble is, of course, knowing when the<BR>start is and when finish
is! Consequently, people try to define a trend and<BR>we hear such
simple concepts as “higher highs and lower lows”, but that<BR>doesn’t really
help matters much, as it is always the next bar that tells<BR>you – or many
bars possibly if you are using moving averages or
other<BR>indicators.<BR><BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Feb 24 06:17:30 2000
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From: HBernst963@xxxxxxx
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Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2000 06:13:55 EST
Subject: [RT] Re: Sell in May and Go away
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Status:
Juat got back from my ski vacation so that's why this reply is late. Here is
the full article:
By MARK HULBERT
Sell in May and go away.
That bit of investor folklore lies near the heart of one of the latest
market-timing strategies to capture public attention. It's an incredibly
simple idea, involving just two moves a year: Sell all your stocks at the
very end of April and reinvest the money on Oct. 31.
I confess to being skeptical several months ago, when I started receiving
e-mail messages about the strategy, which is sometimes called the Halloween
Indicator. But I have since come to believe that there is something to it. To
be sure, the concept has withstood a considerable amount of statistical
scrutiny.
Consider, first, the historical record back to 1925 through 1998, as compiled
by Ibbotson Associates, a research firm in Chicago. Over those 73 years,
large-capitalization stocks returned 4.9 percentage points more, annualized,
between Nov. 1 and April 30 than they did between May 1 and Oct. 31. The
difference is even more impressive for small-cap stocks, for which the
difference has been 18.2 percentage points.
Much of the seasonal pattern is attributable to the so-called January effect
-- the tendency of all stocks, especially small caps, to perform especially
well during the first month of the year (the overall market's sad January
2000 notwithstanding). But even if January is ignored, stocks have still
performed significantly better in the colder months than in the May-October
period.
Nor does the pattern merely flow from the fact that the stock market has
twice crashed spectacularly in October -- in 1929 and 1987. The Halloween
Indicator persists even after those years are removed from the calculations.
Still, some researchers suspect that the indicator may be a statistical
fluke. After all, they contend, many money managers program their computers
to continually search history for price patterns, so it is quite likely that
many of those turn out to be meaningless coincidences. Indeed, researchers
often advise that we ignore patterns that aren't also found in other places
and times.
The Halloween Indicator acquits itself quite well in this regard, according
to a new study conducted by Sven Bouman, a portfolio manager at Aegon, an
insurer based in the Netherlands, and Ben Jacobsen, an assistant professor in
the department of economics and econometrics at the University of Amsterdam.
Of the 36 stock markets they studied outside the United States, they found
the seasonal pattern in 35 of them. It was especially pronounced in Europe,
where the contrast between stocks' summer and winter returns was even greater
than in the United States.
Moreover, the Halloween Indicator is not a modern phenomenon: It has been
present in Britain, for example, since 1694.
Another way to guard against spurious price patterns is to find a plausible
explanation for why an apparent pattern should exist in the first place.
In the case of the Halloween Indicator, Bouman and Jacobsen have such an
explanation. They have found that the magnitude of the Halloween Indicator in
a given country is highly correlated to the length and timing of that
country's average summer vacation.
How would that help explain the Halloween Indicator? Through extensive
surveys, they found that many investors reduced their equity exposure before
taking their summer holidays. Such selling puts a damper on the stock
market's return during the summer months and the reinvestment provides an
extra push in the fall.
Before selling all your stocks on April 30, remember that transaction costs
and taxes can take a big bite out of the Halloween Indicator's advantage.
That said, however, the pattern seems real, and might provide this general
advice for investors:
If you are ready to invest in the stock market and are looking for the right
time to do so, the Halloween Indicator suggests that autumn offers a better
climate than the spring. Conversely, if you're going to be selling some
stock, springtime is the most favorable season.
Mark Hulbert is editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest, a newsletter based in
Annandale, Va. His column on investment strategies appears every other week.
E-mail:strategy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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