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Patric,
On the gif, the red veritcals identify (approximate) lows and the blue
verticals identify (approximate)highs.
The time from K cycle low to market high averages about 22 years (+ or - 6
years.)
The time from K cycle high to market high averages about 10 years (+ or - 5
years.)
Adding 28 years to the 1980 low gives the most optimistic market high
projection of 2008.
Measuring from the 2000 K cycle high, we might expect the final market high
of this K cycle to correspond with the high of the 2002 to 2008 4 year
market cycle.
Finally, a 39 year market cycle high is due in 2007. This reduces the
probability that the final market high of this K cycle to correspond with
the high of the current 4 year cycle. Permabears my have to wait just a bit
longer for the Big One.
None of the above, however, precludes the possibility of an exciting roller
coaster ride into projected 2002 4 year market cycle low.
Stan
> -----Original Message-----
> From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of Patrick White
> Sent: Monday, February 21, 2000 9:19 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Re: The big picture: Kondratieff cycle
>
>
> Stan,
>
> Based on the graph, after the 1900 "high" prices didn't peak until about
> 1929 or 1930, so the K cycle may be indicating a high, but prices may only
> respond +/- 29 years or so. :)
>
> Patrick White
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, February 21, 2000 11:07 AM
> Subject: [RT] The big picture: Kondratieff cycle
>
>
> RTs,
>
>
> The attached gif would suggest that we are within the time zone of a
> Kondratieff cycle high. Source:
> http://www.ttheory.com/public/pubstudies/megatopics/longwave.html
>
>
> Notice that cyclical highs in equity markets tend to occur after K cycle
> highs - usually near the end of the K cycle.
>
>
>
> Stan
>
>
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