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I believe that is correct, but tbill yields are not (yet) above bond
yields.The idea is the curve from 3-months to 30Y should be inverted. I
do not think it has ever been done with the hump at the 10Y either. I'd
think the 3-month must be the high yielder.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Ferguson <wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, February 20, 2000 8:01 PM
Subject: [RT] GEN: ?recession
> RT's,
>
> While doing office archeology (horizontal filing) today I ran across
the
> source of the inverted yield = recession quote:
>
> "When T-Bill yields exceed T-Bond yields, there has always been a
recession,
> and there has never been a false recession signal."
>
> --William Wilson, VP and Economist, Commercial Bank, Detroit.
>
> I have never vetted this quote, so I do not know if in fact this
person said
> that. This is not an advertisement for a recession, and even if I had
one to
> sell I would not advertise it here. Sorry.
>
>
>
> ____ Michael
>
>
>
>
>
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