[RT] S&P500 Near Term Direction...?

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

Looking at a daily chart of the Dow-30,...for the downleg off the 
mid January high,..there is a congestion period around the 11000 level
(in late Jan to early Feb) which appears to have marked the midway or 
"focal point" of the down move.  Intraday high 11900 less the 10130 low,
.is 1770 pts divided in half is 885,...plus 10130,...gives 11015...right at 
the 
area of congestion. If so,...this measure suggests limited downside for the 
Dow-30.

A few days ago I posted [RT] S&P500 Near Term High Risk....?
where near term negatives were mentioned,..etc.  With the extent of 
Friday's selloff,...several near term positives exist (in my mind) ,...and 
this is an update on current thoughts.  Likely these personal thoughts 
are wrong,..and any feedback is very much appreciated.  

Bottom Line,...I went long the close on Friday,...but with a low level 
of confidence.  With the SP500 cash near 50% retracement level of the 
Oct to Jan advance,...very importantant that we hold in this area.  

Positives,...Bonds rallied, interest rates are lower,...
            Talking heads on CNBC very bearish....concerned.

Negatives...P/C Ratio not very firm,,...suggests more selling
                GE down 6,...looks to have a H&S top on daily chart,...etc.

So there are only a limited amount of bullish factors...note one method I use 
of projecting turns has a pivot 02-21 for the S&P500 (email me if you want an 
explanation),...and in my static cycle analysis work I had the 02-23 date 
as a likely key low date...(note 01-23 is 17 market days from 01-28,...
which in turn was 17 mkt days from 01-04,...both important lows)  Either 
way,...we could be within a day or so of a temporary low.  (just my thoughts)

CNBC was so bearish on Friday afternoon,..almost makes you want 
to get some exposure if for no other reason.  I split my longside exposure
between the S&P500 and the NASDAQ Comp....using no load funds. 
   
I am still biased for additional weakness (following any temporary recovery
Wave B rally into Mid-March?)  into the late March or April  timeframe.

One thing for sure,...overseas markets will be down on Monday (they are 
open while we are closed for Holiday) and should remain depressed into 
our Tuesday trading.  If and when we do lift out of this selloff,...even if 
for a 
day or two,...overseas will want to bounce in follow through.  In my mind 
a good potential setup for pursuing overseas follow through.  (Anyone 
interested trading overseas follow through using International type no load 
funds can drop me a line, I have an 8 page paper on the subject and will 
pass it along.)

The threads on RT group with forward looking analysis seem the most 
worthwhile...and this is my attempt at a contribution.  Again,...any 
feedback or thoughts very much appreciated.  Have a good weekend. 
 
Regards,  JIM Pilliod  jpilleafe@xxxxxxx