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Hello Earl,
I am from the same school of thought as you. Fundamentals are weeks ahead of
technicals in the Commodities markets as is the COT reports.
Also keep in mind that institutional traders and hedgers take positions based
on a different set of criteria than the individual trader, speculator or
scalper.
They use the futures as insurance more so than to make a profit on an
individual contract. Their profit is in the commodity that they are insuring
whether it be Bonds, Currencies, Ags, or whatever.
All the Best,
Jerry
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