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<DIV><FONT size=2>Do any of you out there know of an easy way to calculate fair
value for the S&P. From the information that is out there what I have
seen so far is not very clear. I am confused as to which rates are
actually used also the actual way it which its calculated. I have seen a
number of examples all of which I have not been able to make heads or tails
from. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Also is there any sources for the calculating of buy and sell
programs using the preium at which the S&P is trading? Thanks again
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Troy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>wallst@xxxxxxxx</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Feb 07 07:00:56 2000
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <c7.140347a.25c088e2@xxxxxxx> <028d01bf70c3$43233e20$99ceead8@xxxxxx> <001101bf7113$c3cbe4a0$0801c1d1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: FUTR: Effects of Low Prices and Burgeoning Hedge Fund Assets on CornFutures?
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2000 07:53:18 -0700
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Status:
I am of the school which believes that current price includes all public
news and recent price trend includes insider reaction to news which is
about to become public. I have repeatedly seen this phenomena in stocks
and commodities over many years of analyzing charts. I delved into the
news release issue in a post a week or two ago specifically using the
fall price action in gold which led the announcement of reduced gold
sales by central banks by days if not weeks. In the process of preparing
that post, I discovered another budding price explosion under
construction which became news on Friday. (I no long have the post, but
might check for RT archives).
COT reports can be somewhat useful, but I would not use them as the
basis of my trading. The COT report on corn has been decidedly bearish
with commercials short and spec funds long yet the price action has
clearly (to date) been bullish and there has been strong buying with
little distribution. Those following the commercials will be short corn
while those following the price action have been long and very
profitably so. Ditto for seasons ... somewhat useful but not something
on which to base trading. I think this is especially important when one
is looking at longer term investment in commodities.
The only true fundamental? I consider when looking at commodity
investment is the historical price action. This works in commodities
because there is something called cost of production which sets a floor
and supply/demand and substitution which sets a ceiling. Thus, I look at
a 20-30 year monthly continuous unadjusted chart of a commodity (see
attached for example), find the historical (non-extreme) highs and lows,
mark off the PH/PL dates and months between PH/PL, and use this as the
basis for deciding if I want to accumulate a position.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Ferguson" <wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, February 06, 2000 7:32 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: FUTR: Effects of Low Prices and Burgeoning Hedge Fund
Assets on CornFutures?
> Good post. A couple of questions to explore. What are the commitment
of
> traders levels, is anyone following this? What is the seasonal
tendency. And
> what is the most likely news scenario to trigger the buying? (As OPEC
volume
> reductions of oil)
>
>
>
> ____ Michael
>
> "Those who would trade opportunity for security will soon have
neither."
> ____ Ben Franklin
>
>
>
> | Subject: [RT] FUTR: Effects of Low Prices and Burgeoning Hedge Fund
> | Assets on CornFutures?
> |
> | I believe the current price rise in corn has the makings of a
classic
> | demand-pull rally. I believe I am not the only one that sees this.
> | And, I believe we could be for a much more lively corn market in the
> | coming year than many expect. Just some things to think about.
> |
> | Regards,
> |
> | John J. Lothian
> |
> |
>
>
>
>
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