|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
When sentiment turns, any excuse will be used and it won't matter a whit.
The only thing that matters is if you took a piece out of the action and are
smart enough to move on to greener pastures. Too many traders will continue
to "Buy the Dips" until they finally go bust and quit trading.
----- Original Message -----
From: JW <JW@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, February 04, 2000 11:33 PM
Subject: [RT] MKT - Looking back into the future <g>
> FYI...
>
> JW
> --------
>
> http://www.pathfinder.com/money/wiseguy/archive/000204.html
> Friday, February 4, 2000
>
> Advance explanations for a crash
>
> Why wait till the day of reckoning to find out what killed the bull
market?
> I've got a list of ready-made rationales.
>
> By Walter Updegrave
>
> Well, things were looking dicey for a while, what with the
Y2K-noncompliant
> Nasdaq losing nearly 5% in January. By February, though, everything was
back
> to normal, with stocks of all stripes climbing higher.
>
> Still, we all know that one of these days "The Big One" (as Redd Foxx used
> to say as he clutched his chest on Sanford and Son) will hit. Now I don't
> have a clue when that will happen. But I do know that when TBO arrives,
the
> papers, the airwaves and the Net will be swarming with seers, sages and
> savants all pointing fingers at various culprits and, of course,
suggesting
> that they saw it coming all along.
>
> I've got a better idea. Let's beat the post-Crash rush to judgment, and
get
> our stories straight while there's still plenty of air in the bubble. I
> offer six handy explanations for the crash that you can pull out at a
> moment's notice to impress your friends. Then you can worry about more
> important things—like, say, margin calls and all those early-retirement
> plans.
>
> THE BULL MARKET ENDED BECAUSE...
>
> 1. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan was too aggressive in raising interest
rates,
> leading jittery investors to conclude that inflation must be a more
serious
> threat than they thought. Facing higher rates and the specter of higher
> inflation, investors fled stocks in droves, wreaking havoc with the Dow,
> Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and, for reasons not entirely clear, the
> Indianapolis 500.
>
> 2. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan wasn't aggressive enough in raising
interest
> rates, leading jittery investors to conclude that inflation would become a
> more serious threat than they thought. Facing the specter of higher
> inflation and higher rates, investors fled stocks in droves, wreaking
havoc
> with...(see ending above).
>
> 3. Investors, believing tech-stock prices had become grossly inflated,
> rotated into health, financial and energy stocks in search of reasonable
> valuations. Unfortunately, the massive shift of money into these sectors
> made them overvalued too, triggering a furious chain reaction in which
> investors raced like maniacs from industrials to consumer durables to
> services to utilities and eventually back to tech in a fruitless search
for
> value. Dizzy from rotating, investors finally decided just to dump their
> stocks and buy hog bellies and gold bullion.
>
> 4. Quarterly earnings for every company in the Standard & Poor's 500 index
> came in exactly one cent above analysts' consensus estimates. Realizing
> corporate earnings figures are even less reliable than presidential
> candidates' campaign promises, U.S. investors decided they were better off
> in markets where the rigging was upfront. So they pulled their dough out
of
> U.S. shares and poured it into emerging markets.
>
> 5. After years of losses, Amazon.com finally reported a two-cents-a-share
> annual profit. Instead of heartening investors, however, it made them
> realize that at this pace, it would take 872 years before Amazon could
> generate enough earnings to justify its lofty stock price. As everyone
from
> neo-value investors to net-stock zealots began dumping Amazon, the selloff
> spread to other dot-com companies, then tech firms and finally to any
> company that uses technology.
>
> 6. It turned out that the doomsday forecast of Deutsche Bank economist Ed
> "Y2Krackpot" Yardeni wasn't wrong, just premature. On January 1, 2001—the
> first day of the real New Millennium—computers worldwide crashed just as
Ed
> predicted, sparking a full-scale collapse in economies and stock markets
> around the world. Within minutes, Yardeni posted the following message in
> bold type on his website:
>
> "Nyah, nyah,
> nyah, nyah
> nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah."
>
>
>
|