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<P align=center>February 4, 2000 </P>
<P align=center>S&P 500 Neural Network Update</P></FONT><B><FONT
color=#ff0000>
<P>Disclaimer</P></B></FONT>
<P>Do not trade these models. They are depicted only to show the ability of
mathematical models to reasonably predict future price movement. There is no
inference that these models will continue to perform at past levels. There is a
risk of substantial loss of capital trading futures.</P><FONT size=2></FONT>
<P> </P>
<P>Check out the equity curves of the neural nets we’ve been tracking
which use <B><FONT color=#ff0000>end-of-day</B></FONT> data against one of the
top S&P 500 day-trading systems available as rated by Futures Truth Magazine
which makes use of <B><FONT color=#ff0000>intra-day</B></FONT> trading (see <A
href="http://www.clayburg.com/cy98home.html";>http://www.clayburg.com/cy98home.html</A>
and <A
href="http://www.clayburg.com/cy98eqcurve_10_yr.html";>http://www.clayburg.com/cy98eqcurve_10_yr.html</A>).
The bottom line is that this excellent referenced system has generated <B><FONT
color=#ff0000>$493,000</B></FONT> in the last <B><U><FONT color=#ff0000>10
years</B></U></FONT> and the System Model below has generated close to <B><FONT
color=#ff0000>$300,000</B></FONT> (Best Model = <B><FONT
color=#ff0000>$252,000</B></FONT>) in about <B><U><FONT color=#ff0000>10
months</U> </B></FONT>with fewer trades and smaller drawdowns using only
end-of-day data (Both system values contain hypothetical out-of-sample
trades). The Best Model below averages <B><FONT color=#0000ff>$9,869</B>
</FONT>per winning trade and <B><FONT color=#ff0000>$2,468</B></FONT><FONT
color=#0000ff> </FONT>per losing trade for an average win to average loss ratio
= <B><FONT color=#0000ff>4.0 </FONT>([<FONT color=#0000ff>27
</FONT>winning trades<FONT color=#0000ff>][$9,869</FONT> per average winning
trade] – [<FONT color=#ff0000>10</FONT> losing trades]<FONT
color=#ff0000>[$2,468</FONT> per average losing trade] + <FONT
color=#0000ff>10,500</FONT> open equity = <FONT
color=#0000ff>$252</B>,<B>300</FONT> in out-of-sample trading</B>). See all
out-of-sample trades for the Best Model at the web address provided shortly.</P>
<P>Let’s check the tape for the past week….</P><B><U><FONT
color=#ff0000>
<P>The System S&P 500 Voting Model</B> (</FONT><FONT color=#808080>Optimized
on 12-1-1999</FONT><FONT color=#ff0000>)</P></U></FONT>
<P>The System Model has added <FONT color=#0000ff>$3,750</FONT> additional
"Open position equity" since entering its current <B><FONT
color=#008000>Long</B></FONT> position on 1-27-2000 at the open. Its true
out-of-sample cumulative equity stands at <FONT color=#0000ff>$292,775</FONT>
since 4-1-1999 and approximately <FONT color=#0000ff>$73,450 </FONT>since the
model was developed (12-1-1999). The System Model’s neural predictive
signal is strong at <FONT color=#0000ff>3.0</FONT>.</P><B><U><FONT
color=#ff0000>
<P>The Best of the Five (5) S&P 500 Neural Models</B> (</FONT><FONT
color=#0000ff>Model #2 - </FONT><FONT color=#808080>Not optimized in any way
– uses only four (4) technical indicators</FONT><FONT
color=#ff0000>)</P></U></FONT>
<P>The Best Model closed its then current <B><FONT
color=#ff0000>Short</B></FONT> position on Monday of this week for <FONT
color=#0000ff>$20,000</FONT> in additional equity spanning a <FONT
color=#0000ff>seven (7)</FONT> day trading period. This model added <FONT
color=#0000ff>$10,500</FONT> additional "Open position equity" since
entering its current <B><FONT color=#008000>Long</B></FONT> position <FONT
color=#0000ff>five (5)</FONT> days ago. Its true out-of-sample cumulative equity
stands at <FONT color=#0000ff>$252,300</FONT> since 4-1-1999 and approximately
<FONT color=#0000ff>$76,600 </FONT>since the model was developed (12-1-1999).
The Best Model’s neural predictive signal is deteriorating (currently at
<FONT color=#0000ff>0.4</FONT>) and will most likely generate a <B><FONT
color=#ff0000>Short</B></FONT> position some time next week.</P>
<P>All equity values above are calculated at <U>today’s open</U> because
that’s how Profit 2000 calculates equity whenever the neural models trade
on the open as these do.</P>
<P>Descriptive charts and text are posted at <A
href="http://www.mindspring.com/~blee7/";>www.mindspring.com/~blee7/</A>. <FONT
color=#ff0000>Reload/Refresh this web address to view any additional files that
may have been added since you last visited.</FONT> You must <FONT
color=#ff0000>Reload/Refresh</FONT> all images to get them to update once they
are displayed. The file names are self-explanatory. The highlighted areas at the
bottom of the "closed trades" files show the closed profit (loss) in
column 4 since the models were developed. It does not show the models open
equity. The last column in those two files shows each model’s respective
cumulative equity since the out-of-sample trading began 4-1-1999.</P>
<P>The Best Model is not optimized in any way nor are any other models in the
five (5) model system. The System Model was optimized on a 4-day voting moving
average of a correct prediction of the five (5) individual models on the date of
development (12-1-1999). </P>
<P>– <FONT color=#0000ff>Brian Lee </FONT>– <FONT
color=#0000ff></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Feb 04 22:11:46 2000
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From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] First there were dart-throwing monkeys...
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2000 18:55:19 -0800
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Status:
First there were dart throwing monkeys choosing stocks that could only make
money,
now we are wiring plants with electrodes to pick winning stocks.
When will this madness end ? !!! and the real madness and panic selling
begin ?
-----------------
> > From: Molin, Ulf
> > Sent: Monday, January 31, 2000 07:51 AM
> > To: STech-Info-SoapBox
> > Subject: First there were dart-throwing monkeys...
> >
> > Check out this specially wired Yucca plant. The artist attached
electrodes
> > to the plant and hooked it up to a computer that can trade on the
Swedish
> > stock market. The plant gets water and food when it makes a profit.
Claim
> > is 18% profit in the last three months.
> >
> > http://www.art.a.se/best_before/about/docimg/ola_yucca.jpg
> >
> > Ulf
> >
> > <<ola_yucca.jpg>>
>
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