|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
We dropped to the 1368 area a bit too fast for my liking and while we
may get a quick rally here, I think that the end of this decline is not
yet in sight. and there is some evidence that this decline may be part
of a decline of a larger degree. Next target for the S&P is the 1325
area. Another item worth noting is the weekly outside reversals on both
the ND100 and the RL(Ru2000). The Ru2000 has been outperforming the
other averages for some weeks now so I view this as rather important.
The SP had a monthly outside reversal! Friday's huge drop in both the
NASDAQ and NYSE breadth models has moved both deep enough into negative
territory that they are not likely to recover quickly. Given the
interest rate climate (I'm withholding judgement on the rally unique to
the 30 year for the moment) and extreme valuations, this has the
potential to invalidate a number of bullish EW counts and get very
dangerous.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2000 7:58 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: deja vu all over again?
> Today was an amazing day when viewed relative to the previous inside
day
> and the day prior to the inside day - both buy and sell signals were
> given by the daily pattern. The spring reversal across the pivot low
of
> the 25th on the 30 minute chart was very strong. I have a 5 wave
decline
> off the 03Jan high followed by an ABC into the PH on the 14th followed
> by a 5 wave decline into today's pivot low - exactly what I would
expect
> to see in an ABC correction of a larger degree. The only problem with
> calling the decline complete is that the 5th wave has not subdivided
as
> should be expected nor has the minimum .62 3:5 wave expansion
objective
> at 1378 been met. Thus I view the question of completion as
unresolved.
> Either today's decline will prove to be w.1 of w.5 and the decline
will
> continue, or the structure will be imperfect and the market will now
> move to new highs - a close above today's high would resolve the issue
> in favor of the bullish case and would probably give my breadth models
a
> nudge into buy territory. A close below today's low will signal that
the
> correction should continue - perhaps to 1368.
>
> That's the thing about EW, it is quite useful but imperfect so one
must
> always go with the flow.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
> To: <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
> <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2000 4:35 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: deja vu all over again?
>
>
> > 4. I am viewing the decline as having comprising 5 waves down with
> > today's selloff completing the 5th wave down.
>
>
|