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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>When I read Barron's I turn to Alan Ableson's
column first. He has knowledge, experience and a broad range of ideas to
draw from. And he has a sense of humor. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>For the same reasons when I open my RT digest I
look for Norman Winski's posts first. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Keep 'em coming Norm.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I particularly liked "Commercial free
message #142 from,<BR>Norman Winski....don't contact me, when the stars are
right, I will contact you."</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Jan 27 23:04:11 2000
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From: "Mindspring" <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] MKT - S&P 500 Neural Update
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2000 20:04:39 -0600
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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>
<P align=center>January 27, 2000 </P>
<P align=center>S&P 500 Neural Network Update</P></FONT>
<P> </P><U><FONT color=#ff0000>
<P>The System S&P 500 Voting Model (</FONT><FONT color=#800000>Optimized on
12-1-1999</FONT><FONT color=#ff0000>)</P></U></FONT>
<P>The System model added <FONT color=#0000ff>$13,000</FONT> additional
"Closed position" profit since last week. It’s true
out-of-sample cumulative equity stands at <FONT color=#0000ff>$289,000</FONT>
since 4-1-1999 and approximately <FONT color=#0000ff>$70,000 </FONT>since the
model was developed (12-1-1999). This model went <FONT color=#008000>Long
</FONT>at today’s open.</P><U><FONT color=#ff0000>
<P>The Best of the Five (5) S&P 500 Neural Models (</FONT><FONT
color=#800000>Not optimized in any way</FONT><FONT
color=#ff0000>)</P></U></FONT>
<P>The Best model closes its current <FONT color=#ff0000>Short</FONT> position
(<FONT color=#0000ff>$13,000</FONT> additional profit) at tomorrow’s open
and will go <FONT color=#008000>Long</FONT>. It’s true out-of-sample
cumulative equity stands at <FONT color=#0000ff>$235,000</FONT> since 4-1-1999
and approximately <FONT color=#0000ff>$69,000 </FONT>since the model was
developed (12-1-1999). </P>
<P>All equity values above are calculated at <U>today’s open</U>.</P>
<P>The referenced charts are posted at <A
href="http://www.mindspring.com/~blee7/";>www.mindspring.com/~blee7/</A>. You may
have to <FONT color=#ff0000>Reload/Refresh</FONT> the images to get them to
update even though the displayed dates are current. The file names are
self-explanatory. The highlighted areas at the bottom of the "closed
trades" files show the closed profit (loss) in column 4 since the models
were developed. It does not show the models open equity. The last column in
those two files shows each model’s respective cumulative equity since the
out-of-sample trading began 4-1-1999.</P>
<P>The Best Single Model is not optimized in anyway nor is any other single
model in the five- (5) model voting group. The System Model was optimized on a
4-day voting moving average of a correct prediction of the five (5) individual
models on the date of development (12-1-1999). – <FONT color=#0000ff>Brian
Lee</P></FONT><FONT color=#0000ff>
<P>Disclaimer</P></FONT>
<P>Do not trade these models. They are depicted only to show the ability of
mathematical models to reasonably predict future price movement. There is no
inference that these models will continue to perform at past levels. There is a
risk of substantial lost of capital trading futures.</P></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Jan 27 23:04:18 2000
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <200001272046.NAA10420@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <3890BE95.A1DE4764@xxxxxxxxxx> <3890E864.BAAF2ED2@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Overnight disaster insurance?
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2000 19:13:20 -0700
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Status:
You can bet that had those limits been in, the selling would have
accelerated and liquidity would have dried up as each limit was
approached. I was out of the market a few days earlier but I seem to
remember that there was a 20% limit which is right where that gap is. I
do remember one decline earlier in the 90's when the pit traders and the
floor traders were literally chanting for price to drop the limit to get
the market closed.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dennis Holverstott" <dennis@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2000 5:52 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Overnight disaster insurance?
> Here's a 5-minute chart of the SP futures during the 1987 crash. The
> magenta lines are the current CME limit percantages although they
> weren't in place in 1987. On Black Monday, there were a couple of
> chances to bail with only about a 5% loss from Friday's close and you
> could have gotten out most of the morning with less than a 10% loss.
> But, if you waited too long, you needed to be capitalized well enough
to
> wait for the the retraces that happened over the next 2 days. If you
> were trading more than about 3:1 leverage and didn't bail early, you
> were dead before the first day was over. Even 3:1 would have taken you
> out if you hadn't bailed by Tuesday morning. 2:1 would have given you
> the option to hang in there.
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