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<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Charles & RealTraders,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>To answer part of Charles' question about
Arthur</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Merrill's Thursday/Friday - Monday
concept</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>(see original inquiry):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Friday to Monday Close as a function
of<BR>Relative position of Thursday and Friday close<BR>within the range of
Thursday & Friday.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>The range for the two ending days of the
week<BR>is taken and four (4) zones are setup within<BR>that range. Zone 1
is the lowest 1/4th of range<BR>and Zone 4 is the highest 1/4th of
range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Such as:<BR>
_________________<BR>
|<BR>Zone4___|____________<BR>
|- | Thursday
Close<BR>Zone3___|___|________<BR>
|
|<BR>Zone2_______|________<BR>
|- Friday Close<BR>Zone1_______|________</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>In this example we have made</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Thursday's close is in the Zone 3 and
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Friday's close is in the Zone 1
so </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>this is a 31 weekend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>We accumulated two sets of data as a
function of<BR>these classification numbers. We kept the percent<BR>of the
move for each classification and separated<BR>such data by direction of
move. The count of the<BR>number of up/down moves was also kept.
This is<BR>illustrated below.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>These results are from the SP futures
contract</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>using continuous contract from 1983 to
now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Using the classification:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>31 weekends find that 37 of 79 Friday to
Monday<BR>closes are UP about .37 of one percent. We see<BR>that 42 of the
79 Friday to Monday closes are DOWN<BR>and the difference is about 1.1
percent.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Note: A 12 weekend has a 17 to 5
probability of<BR> being up for a little
less than 1 percent.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> A 14
weekend has a 40 to 14 probability of<BR>
being up but for less than 1/2 percent.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT><BR><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Fri___Thur: 1
2
3
4<BR>up%1 4.73
8.16 14.08
21.18<BR>upk1 7.00
20.00 37.00
35.00<BR>dn%1 -1.52
-21.76 -46.03
-11.18<BR>dnK1 5.00
25.00 42.00 24.00</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>up%2
15.97 14.65
17.49 11.90<BR>upk2
17.00 36.00
41.00 24.00<BR>dn%2
-2.38 -13.18 -10.16
-7.46<BR>dnK2 5.00
26.00 25.00 16.00</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>up%3
5.35 13.73
15.43 18.22<BR>upk3
15.00 35.00
40.00 25.00<BR>dn%3
-3.82 -13.05 -16.69
-4.16<BR>dnK3 15.00
38.00 38.00 15.00</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>up%4
19.94 27.72
24.15 5.30<BR>upk4
40.00 63.00
44.00 13.00<BR>dn%4
-2.12 -22.31 -17.62
-9.69<BR>dnK4 14.00
53.00 39.00
18.00<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>The conclusion appears that there is no
real</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>significance to any of these configuration
of</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>prices. The 41 relationship occurs
only 6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>percent of the time and though the
probabilities</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>of an up move exists 74% of these, the
amount</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>of the move is very low.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>EL Code below:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Indicator:
Thursday_to_Monday</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Purpose: Evaluate Friday
close to Monday
close<BR>
relative to Friday close and
Thursday/Friday<BR>
Range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>}</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> Vars:
LoRange(0),HiRange(0),DeltaRange(0),<BR>
ThurClose(0),FriClose(0),ThurNdx(0),FriNdx(0),<BR>
TodayIs(0),String1("");</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> Arrays:
UpPerc[4,4](0),DnPerc[4,4](0),<BR>
UpKnt [4,4](0),DnKnt
[4,4](0);<BR> <BR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>TodayIs=DayOfWeek(date);</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>If todayis>todayis[1] then
begin<BR> FriClose=close;<BR> ThurClose=close[1];<BR>End<BR>Else
begin {1st day of week}<BR> LoRange
=Lowest(L[1],2);<BR> HiRange
=Highest(H[1],2);<BR> DeltaRange=(HiRange-LoRange)/4;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> For Value1=1 to 4
begin<BR> If FriClose>=LoRange+(Value1-1)*DeltaRange
and<BR> FriClose< HiRange+ Value1
*DeltaRange then FriNdx=Value1;<BR> If
ThurClose>=LoRange+(Value1-1)*DeltaRange and<BR>
ThurClose< HiRange+ Value1 *DeltaRange then
ThurNdx=Value1;<BR> End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> Value1=(C-FriClose)/Close*100;<BR> If C>FriClose then
begin<BR>
UpPerc[ThurNdx,FriNdx]=UpPerc[ThurNdx,FriNdx]+Value1;<BR> UpKnt
[ThurNdx,FriNdx]=UpKnt [ThurNdx,FriNdx]+1;<BR> End<BR> Else
begin<BR>
DnPerc[ThurNdx,FriNdx]=DnPerc[ThurNdx,FriNdx]+Value1;<BR> DnKnt
[ThurNdx,FriNdx]=DnKnt [ThurNdx,FriNdx]+1;<BR>
End;<BR> <BR>End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> If LastBarOnChart then
begin<BR> For Value1=1 to 4
begin<BR> String1=RightStr(NumToStr(Value1,0),2)+"
";<BR>
print("up%",String1,UpPerc[1,Value1],UpPerc[2,Value1],UpPerc[3,Value1],UpPerc[4,Value1]);<BR>
print("upk",String1,UpKnt [1,Value1],UpKnt [2,Value1],UpKnt [3,Value1],UpKnt
[4,Value1]);<BR>
print("dn%",String1,DnPerc[1,Value1],DnPerc[2,Value1],DnPerc[3,Value1],DnPerc[4,Value1]);<BR>
print("dnK",String1,DnKnt [1,Value1],DnKnt [2,Value1],DnKnt [3,Value1],DnKnt
[4,Value1]);<BR> End;<BR> End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -<BR>Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)<BR>SYTECH
Corporation
email: <</FONT><A href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx";><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>clydelee@xxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>> <BR>7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Work: (713) 783-9540<BR>Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092 <BR>- - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -<BR>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -<BR>To subscribe / unsubscribe from SwingMachine
list<BR></FONT><A href="http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/";><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>After joining list the freeware
SwingMachine program <BR>(DOS Version) is available in the VAULT
at:<BR></FONT><A href="http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/";><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/</FONT></A><BR><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - -<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>From: "charles meyer" <</FONT><A
href="mailto:chmeyer@xxxxxxxx";><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>chmeyer@xxxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>To: <</FONT><A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx";><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>clydelee@xxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Sent: Friday, January 21, 2000
05:11</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Subject: ARTHUR MERRILL'S FRIDAY-MONDAY
CONCEPT.....</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"><BR><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT></DIV><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>> Hi Clyde:<BR>> <BR>> Have you perchance
done any research on Merrill's original work<BR>> that whenever the market is
down (closes lower than Thursday) on a Friday<BR>> the odds are about 70%
that the following Monday will also be down day with<BR>> a lower
close? I think I recall reading somewhere that this pattern has
not<BR>> held up in recent years?<BR>> <BR><BR>> Best wishes,<BR>>
Charles<BR>> <BR>> </FONT></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Jan 26 09:10:59 2000
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Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2000 11:54:09 EST
Subject: [RT] Inv Intell Survey....
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Status:
Today's Investor's Intelligence Weekly Survey
of Investment Advisors,....results:
% Bullish 55.9%
% Bearish 26.1%
% Correction 18.0%
Note the % Bulls and % Bears are at most extreme
levels since the late June / early July 199 time frame:
(06-25-99) (07-02-99)
% Bullish 57.5 % 55.8 %
% Bearish 26.5 % 25.7 %
Just something to keep in mind,...despite seemingly a large
degree of nervousness here,..the survey of investment advisors
indicates firm "overbelief",....worrisome from a contrary perspecitve.
Regards,.... JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
Also,..interesting article on Bloomberg site,
by Michael Lewis,..author of Liar's Poker,..re
how the Internet boom has transformed the
idea of what is viewed as a company:
Bloomberg.com or
....http://www.bloomberg.com/feature.html
(used to be called "Blind Pools" during years past)
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