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[RT] Re: Systematic vs. Discretionary



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<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Most of the traders I have met would love to find the Holy 
Grail system and, without emotions or tears, take every trade and come out on 
top.&nbsp; But none that I know have the either the capital, nor the ability, to 
commit to such stringent parameters for position trading.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Consequently, they either use software packages which 
allow them to trade with some system or other - be that EW, Gann, or through a 
set of indicators - and hope they can trade within their means, which are 
usually fairly meagre.&nbsp;&nbsp; Most try a number of different instruments, 
in an attempt to spread their bets - rather like the roulette player across the 
table.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>But, one by one, they come to realize that there is no 
Holy Grail system on the market and that, worse still, all the other concepts of 
waves or star gazing, or even simple moving averages, for forecasting where the 
market is going to go don't work for very long, if at all.&nbsp; As for using 
all the fundamentals - well that is for the big houses, with multi-millions and 
hedging their positions, etc.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>The only thing the small guy, with limited funds can do is 
learn to trade the leading edge of the market, by following the price 
action.&nbsp; By definition that means day trading.&nbsp; Futhermore, it means 
only using the very liquid markets with a daily range and movement that is 
consistent with their ability to withstand drawdowns that their account will 
allow.&nbsp; Not easy!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Now, clever people with sophisticated computer programs 
and all the other factors necessary to trade a system, with all its 
implications, have to have a bank account or other people's money of sufficient 
size to trade.&nbsp;&nbsp; Most on this list are individual traders who 
don't&nbsp;have the money or systems.&nbsp; If they cannot trade with 
discretion, they cannot trade at all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Therefore, it follows that effective means of day trading 
is for the little guy and systems, indicators et al, are for&nbsp;those who, 
shall we say, live to play, rather than play to live.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Fortunately, for the small guy, there are no off-the-shelf 
systems that you can plug in and run on a computer - at least none that cannot 
be spotted pretty quickly as being very iffy (anyway the owners wouldn't be 
selling them, they would be just using them!).&nbsp;&nbsp; So, once he has got 
passed the looking for the Holy Grail and systems, the only thing left to do is 
to learn to trade in the old fashioned way - by seeing what is happening, as it 
is happening, against a set of pretty univeral means of defining the parameters 
of a market.&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Fortunately, for the big guy, there are plenty of 
off-the-shelf systems, etc, etc and if they apply themselves with right amount 
of capital behind them (either theirs or other people's) they can succeed - 
probably for quite a while and, in any case, long enough to crow about it in 
various ways.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>So in conclusion, I would warn anyone against day trading, 
until they have paper traded and understood what they are doing, but by the same 
token, don't bother to position trade unless they have considerable money to 
play with.&nbsp;&nbsp; Finally, I am sure that there is no contest between the 
two, it is just that one concept is for one thing, while the other is for 
another.&nbsp; Understanding this may save a lot of money and 
heartache...&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>The fact is that computerized systems and indicators lag 
the market, but price action and the brain don't!&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Bill Eykyn</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><A 
href="http://www.t-bondtrader.com";>www.t-bondtrader.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jan 24 13:34:31 2000
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From: "wallst" <wallst@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Little mind games
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2000 11:29:42 -0800
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<DIV><FONT size=2>To all RT's</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Interesting little thing&nbsp;I did today.&nbsp;&nbsp;After 
running a trade early this morn, I got a message from my broker saying that the 
globex was down and that orders would be entered manually.&nbsp; Usually when 
things like that happen, I tend to stay out just due to the uncertanty of how 
your orders would get into the market.&nbsp; However many times even though as I 
choose to stay out, I start to get tempted to trade when a signal comes, which I 
usually end up kicking myself as I said I would not run any trades.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Well today, when that icky poo feeling started to pop up, I 
got so fed up, took a sticky and stuck it right in the middle of my monitor as a 
reminder of not to trade.&nbsp; Interestingly enough, that kept me from trying 
to enter anything else every time the thought entered my mind.&nbsp; 
Unfortunatly however today the market cracked and I would have made some pretty 
good profits today if I did trade. Let me take that back, not so unfortunate as 
I stuck to what I wanted to do.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Point Im trying to make here is, how many times have you told 
yourself you would or would not do somthing and then do or not do that very 
thing?&nbsp; As simple as the little post it was, it was nevertheless still very 
effective! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1)&nbsp;It's just an idea but the&nbsp;post it note worked 
great!&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2)&nbsp;Don't&nbsp;forget sometimes SIMPLICITY is the best 
solution. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jan 24 12:57:17 2000
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From: "Hallock" <hallocd@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: (RT) FTR: Crude Oil
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2000 15:10:34 -0500
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I spoke with my fuel oil deliveryman yesterday because I was 
amazed that he was delivering me oil on a Sunday.&nbsp; He told me I would be 
glad he came because the price of my delivered oil was going from $1.39 to $1.60 
today.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There are a lot of little wars going on in the 
Middle-East/Asia region and I can't help but think this has some bearing on 
Crude prices.&nbsp; <FONT color=#000000>OPEC </FONT>agreements have meant little 
in the past.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Pete Hallock</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From: 
    </B>Jack Higgins &lt;<A 
    href="mailto:jfh37@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>jfh37@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;<BR><B>To: 
    </B><A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> 
    &lt;<A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;<BR><B>Date: 
    </B>Monday, January 24, 2000 9:26 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>[RT] (RT) FTR: Crude 
    Oil<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
    <DIV>Got a automatic delivery of heating oil at 9:30 Sunday morning at my 
    home. Throughout the day the oil trucks were out in force in my area making 
    deliveries. I take this to mean one of two things, either I have a very 
    conscientious oil company that likes to work on Sunday mornings, or the 
    correction from the sharp run-up in prices is at hand.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Jack</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jan 24 13:24:16 2000
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Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2000 16:11:27 -0400
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Subject: [RT] Re: Relative Strength Ranking
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Status:   

I subscribe to Dail Graphs on line that provides all the Rankings in the IBD on
a nightly basis from the Report Button in their program, the reports export
directly to Excel or Lotus 123, or tab delimited text, where they can be sorted
and tracked, and saved for your use. I have a huge Lotus data base of these
reports.

I have no attachment to William O'Neil co. I am just a happy user.

____________________Reply Separator____________________
Subject: [RT] Re: Relative Strength Ranking
Author: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date:  01/24/2000 3:38 PM

John

Are you looking for the RS as in IBD?  If so you can
check out www.stocktables.com and
www.tradingmarkets.com.  The two sites provide a
screen for determining the RS for the stocks.  

I hope this helps.

JS

--- jdfo <jdfo@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Any Real Trader know of a web site where I can find
> the Relative Strength
> Rankings  (RS) of all stocks?
> 
> Many thanks.
> John O
> 
> 
> 
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