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My NYSE daily breadth models (a/d, h/l. a/d volume) have not gone on a
sell, however they have a) failed to confirm the rally attempt in the
NYSE and b) have declined below the previous pivot lows. This leads me
to believe that more weakness or sideways action lies ahead in the S&P.
My NASDAQ daily breadth models have strengthened and are confirming the
most recent highs. My weekly breadth models are in good shape. This
suggests to me that there will be increased volatility and pushing and
pulling between the S&P and NASDAQ. The Ru2000 continues be the best
performer of the major indexes and I look for this to continue
interrupted only by minor corrections. I suspect that the S&P will be
rather choppy with a negative drift.
I've thrown in the towel on trading the bonds for the time being. The
many short/long reversal patterns which have occurred during the past
several weeks have been unreliable for anything more than a quick day
trade and the yield curve has flattened considerably with the 10 year
offering higher yields than the 30 year. The bond market wants to rally
and the supply fundamentals are somewhat bullish, however the market is
getting big corporate supply and there is considerable fear that the Fed
will become more aggressive in rate increases. I suspect we'll have a
lot of chop chop in bonds until they work their way to strong resistance
in 7 percent area. Also, anyone not keeping an eye on the CRB index is
missing something very important.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, January 21, 2000 5:19 AM
Subject: [RT] sp500 outlook jan/feb
> good morning
>
>
> we have a TEMPORARY bottom
> maybe into intra day Monday
>
> this to be used to sell the rallies and get out of your 401K and
Ira
> and ANY long positions in equities
>
> the rally we see in bonds will be short lived and that should add
fuel to
> the fire
> first target is DEC low
> then an impulse rally with failed technicals
> and next is Oct low
>
> what are your views now john boggio
> your last update in DEC 1999 you were expecting a fail rally to new
hi??
> we did get it in Dow and NASDAQ
> so what is the nature pulse saying now??
> happy trading
> Ben
>
>
>
>
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