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Thanks for the note.
I exited long (overseas mutual fund) positions on Friday
as I was uneasy about a 4 day hold....with the
US market being closed on Monday,..etc.
No firm opinion on next week...I plan on standing
aside unless we pull back to levels where short
term indicators are oversold....right now we are in
overbought territory. The timeframe 01-18 to 01-20
shows as a likely energy point,..and in my mind,..
the RISK is of a turn to the downside,...as we have
moved up into this timeframe.
Also,...a static cycle 13 mkt day count indicates the
18th and 19th as likely pivot dates,...as that time frame
is 13 mkt days from the high in late December (12-30
and 31). Also,...the lunar eclipse on 01-21 could coincide
with a turn on the 20 -21 timeframe. If we moved lower
early in the week....we could move down into late week..etc.
The Put/Call ratio has been lousy,...implying complacency
at best,..and more likely overbelief. Sentiment surveys are
NOT indicating fear of any kind. However,..two friends I share
thoughts with are both feeling that this move up is likely to
continue into the 01-21 eclipse date....and that very well may happen.
However,..my bias is to manage for risk...not for reward,...
so I only enter trades when the risk is perceived as low,..
(ie. oversold in a trading range,.etc) and cannot feel that
way about this current timeframe,....so likely will be standing
aside until we either pullback to oversold levels,...or are set
up for a good night of overseas follow through.
Hope this helps. (By the way ,....you were the only RT'r
to reply to that post I made a few days ago....I was surprised,...
not that it's a big deal....but the intent of the post was to
precipitate some discussion on the direction of the market,..
as opposed to data feed source discussion,..etc....oh well.)
Have a good weekend. JIM jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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