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Thanks Jim for this note....
I too show this to be an interesting timeframe....the 12th and then the 15th.
However,...on Tues 01-11 the Index P/C ratio was above 2.0 (at 2.07) for the
first time in awhile,...suggesting finally some fear and hedging. I looked
at
that as a positive,...and am expecting the market to rise into Friday 01-14.
In my notes I have 01-14 as a Mercury/Sun conjunction,...which is likely to
result in a short term high (in the opinon of a friend who follows the astro
stuff) ....to be followed by a decline into Mid February,..posibly the 02-23
timeframe. But I am still open minded here to being wrong.
Aside from analysis,...it "feels" as if the market is discounting the worst
from
Greenspan speaking on Thurs (today) evening to the NY Economics club...
as well as the PPI and CPI economic numbers due today and tomorrow. In
the past,...media discussion of the potentail "grennade" these events
represent
for the market and selling going into the numbers (or events) usually has
discounted the worst....then forced a short covering rally on the event
itself.
So I am open minded to a firm day or two here as the market has discounted
some bad news which may not materialize. (note the Bank of England just
announced a hike in rates by 0.25% and the European markets (up about 1%) and
SP500 futures on globex are steady here,...near their highs in the
overnight....a potential hurdle, again already hyped by the media, which the
market seems to have discounted).
Other reasons to be constructive very short term....Utilities rallied
yesterday
despite further weakness in Bonds....constructive for the Bond market? And
money flow into equity fund is huge,...something like $10B over the last week
into equity funds was reported on CNBC yesterday morning. And
semiconductors were very strong going into the close yesterday,..usually
bodes well as a leadership group for techs next day or two, etc.
Lastly,...negative earning "pre-announcements" should be mostly out of the
way.
Bottomline...my feeling is that over the very short term,...today and
tomorrow,..
the downside is limited and the likeihood of a move higher is better than
breakeven.
The shorts may get squeezed a little here.
I do not trust this market though,..and feel that after the 14th the chance
of a move lower is likely. So if we do get a day or two of firmness I will
exit on Friday at the latest. Thanks again for the post,...hope all is well.
Regards, JIM Pilliod
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