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Larry and All,
In 1989 I was half owner of a townhouse. We paid $121,000 for it in 1985,
the comps in my community were selling for $165,000 in 1989. My partner was
an "experienced" real estate investor beleiving real estate prices would
never decline.
After a night out at the bars, my buddy and I decided for a late night
breakfast at Denny's. Behind us in the next booth were two guys I would
guess about 18 years old. I overheard them talking about how they were
going to get their fathers to put down payments on townhouses for them and
in two years they'd have $40k - $50 each.
The next day, I called my partner and told him I wanted to sell and wanted
out. He reluctantly agreed but would sell below the last comparable sales
prices. Our townhouse sat on the market for over a year. My partner
wouldn't come down on price and we watched comparable units selling in the
upper $120's. I finally sold out to my partner for far less than we would
have gotten initially.
Those two kids in Denny's called the top of the real estate bull market of
the 80's.
Howard
>From: "Larry Brent" <lbrent@xxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: lbrent@xxxxxxxx
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: [RT] Re: Market tops
>Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 09:18:57 -0600
>
>Ira and all,
>My thinking exactly! This past weekend I was reminded of the supposed
>meeting of old Joe Kennedy and a shoe shine guy. While Joe was getting his
>shoes shined the shoe shiner was giving all the stock tips, etc. - after
>Joe left he called his broker and sold all his stock holdings. His
>thinking was the market was headed down big time if unknowledgable people
>are giving out tips and trading on them. This occurred in '29 just before
>the crash. I don't know if the story is true, but it does have interesting
>point.
>This past weekend I was standing in line at a local supermarket. As I
>stood
>there, I got to listening to the checker telling about her successful stock
>trading to a much older woman. At first I thought she was very
>knowledgable, but then I percieved that she was only using terms she'd
>picked up from her broker and really didn't understand at all! Then came
>the "tips" ....... did I sell out yesterday -no.
>However, I'm getting more and more wary so I may cash out and take a nice
>long vacation.
>Larry
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
>To: realtraders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Monday, January 10, 2000 10:39 PM
>Subject: Market tops
>
>
> > Not looking at anything technical, just the psychology of the market and
> > what is happening about us. There are now more TV ads for on line
> > brokers then there are for Burger King. There are more ads for mutual
> > funds then there is for "Bud Lite". There are more ads for drugs then
> > there are for feminine hygiene products. Is this the first sign that the
> > powers will get all the spare cash into the market and be flat or short
> > at the high. The only thing missing is the bull on the cover of the
> > Times, there is no more Saturday Evening Post. Have a good week and
> > watch your wallets. Ira.
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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