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There is a school of thought which I respect which says that boomers
will not withdraw at a high rate due to increased life span and longer
working years. I've read projections which indicate that the net
available funds for investment will at a minimum remain stable well into
the 20's. I suspect that those who look to demographics for clues
regarding a market top will be looking in the wrong place.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dennis Holverstott" <dennis@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, January 09, 2000 7:28 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line
> > If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
> > they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
> > trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
> > available for purchase thus driving prices up?
>
> Yup, that plays into the demographics model and is why I give the bull
a
> few more years. Most people have their stocks in retirement accounts
and
> they have been conditioned to just buy more on dips.
>
> The whole thing could get ugly though as the boomers approach
retirement
> age. We saw what happened the first two days this year when a lot of
> people, for tax reasons, put off taking profits in their taxable
> accounts until after the year end. Imagine the whole boomer generation
> dumping the stocks in their tax-free accounts with no worries about
> paying taxes on the profits. The smart ones would get out quick and
the
> others would hang in there and get whacked hard. The whole psychology
of
> the market could change from buy the dips to sell the rallies as the
> retiring boomers start to consider security more important than
growth.
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