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Brilliant thought indeed... Don't know, but very interesting idea for sure
Gwenn
Don Thompson wrote:
> Earl and others.
>
> About historical evaluations.
>
> I am thinking that there is a mechanism that hasn't been discussed and
> might be one reason why valuations keep going up.
>
> If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
> they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
> trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
> available for purchase thus driving prices up?
>
> I am not talking about institutions that make the allocation decisions
> or when to get in or out of a stock, but in aggregate.
>
> I base this observation on the cumulative volume line since 1974. It
> basically just goes sideways during corrective times then heads back up
> in accumulation phase. If I am right,
> this market could go into another accumulation phase, since the top in
> 1998.
>
> Best Regards,
>
> Don Thompson
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
> >
> > With stocks at historical high valuations, many commodities at major
> > multi-year cyclical lows, and bonds having just turned in a historically
> > abysmal year, it is obvious that AJC has her allocation reversed from
> > what it should be! Only momentum players believe that the bean stalk
> > grows to the sky but any farmer can tell you that the price of the beans
> > can't go much lower.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Marlowe Cassetti" <marlowec@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, January 08, 2000 12:15 AM
> > Subject: [RT] GEN: Shift to Futures?
> >
> > > Just got through watching Abbey Joseph Cohen from Goldman Sachs on the
> > PBS
> > > Wall Street Week. When Louis R. asked her about asset allocation for
> > year
> > > 2000, she stated that for their institutional investors they (Goldman
> > Sachs)
> > > are recommending 70% equities, 27% bonds and 3% COMMODITIES!!! She
> > > justified the 3% by stating that they expect commodities to show good
> > growth
> > > along with the economy and the stock markets. She also commented that
> > bonds
> > > should pick up and the foreign markets should pick up too.
> > >
> > > My point is really the slow shift to the realization by portfolio
> > managers
> > > that commodities should be represented (albeit small) in their
> > holdings. As
> > > a Financial Advisor, who speculates in the futures markets on the
> > side, I
> > > noted this was reflected in the recent issue of "Financial Planning
> > > Magazine." The article "Toes in the Water" stated that few financial
> > > advisors are willing to plunge into managed futures, but more and more
> > are
> > > willing to test the waters. In the body of the article it appears
> > that
> > > institutional investors and high net worth investors are comfortable
> > to take
> > > a small position in managed futures. This may very be the new
> > portfolio
> > > paradigm; equities, bonds, money market, real estate and futures for a
> > > balanced asset allocation. Remember when the advice was to have a
> > small
> > > position in gold or other "hard" assets?
> > >
> > > If the technology and Internet sectors cool sometime in the future,
> > new era
> > > investors hooked on double and triple gains may push into futures and
> > > managed futures for satisfaction. It will be interesting to see if
> > this
> > > plays out.
> > >
> > > Marlowe Cassetti
> > > Colorado Springs, CO
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> [Image]
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