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This is how Peter Eliades start his "Current Observations" at his webpage http://stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm :
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Since 1900, 7 of the 10 years ending in zero have seen tops of varying importance occur within the first two trading days of the zero year. Some of the January zero year tops were secondary tops i.e. more important tops had already been seen, but all of the 7 noted years headed down within the first 2 trading days of the year. Here are the results:
1900— Top on January 2 (1st trading day of the year) was the highest close of the next 10 months, except for February 5 which closed 0.3% higher
1910— Top on January 3 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next 5 years and 7 months
1920— January 3, 1920 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 5 years
1940— January 3 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 5 years
1960— January 4 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 16 months
1970— January 5 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 11 months
1990— January 2 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next 4 months
2000— ?????
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Facts:
The highest Close for the DOW was on dec 31st 1999 and the High was on the 30th.
S&P highest Close dec 31 and the highest High jan 3rd.
Close, but is it Cigar?
If we accept his Eliades' argument that the Nasdaq composite could act like the DOW of 1929, we DO have Cigar!
High and Close Jan 3rd year 20000!
If this IS to be the high for some time it's no coincidence, since it's not uncommon to see important highs and lows at perigee and apogee (i.e when earth is closest to the sun and farthest away ) (these dates are around Jan 4 (this year Jan 3) and aprox July 5th.
Very interesting article.
Stig
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