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This is all very interesting but how on earth can you boil it down to what
to buy or sell, and on which day????
I gave up a long time ago trying to think this way. Nobody can figure it
out. Just watch CNBC for 5 minutes and you'll see what I mean.
I go on pure technical analysis - i.e. statistics. I think there's a better
chance of being right!
Best regards,
Phil
http://www.patterntrader.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Daniel Goncharoff <Daniel.Goncharoff@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, January 07, 2000 6:05 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: The big bubble
> 'When Nikkei hit 40.000 nobody labeled it a bubble except a few
> weirdos.'
>
> Well, in Japan, maybe. In the west, nobody understood how growth rates
> in the teens could support PE ratios around 100. In the end, it
> couldn't.
>
> 'The truth is also, the majority is now seriously looking for valuation
> models. By majority, I mean the mainstream institutionals who invest
> more and more in tech and net, because of perf pressure and benchmarks
> (Yahoo in SP)
>
> My best guess is we'll start a major selection process, with leaders
> commanding premiums and the others falling through the floor.'
>
> Exactly! We are already seeing that with Amazon, now that higher sales
> has failed to translate into smaller losses, and other E-tailers, who
> throw VC money at customers in the vain hope they will come back, even
> when somebody else has a better deal tomorrow (good luck).
>
> 'My view is that rate fears are completely overblown.'
>
> There we disagree. I think the booming US economy will start to show
> more normal signs - - higher interest rates, higher wages, inflation.
>
> Regards
> DanG
>
>
>
>
>
>
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