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'When Nikkei hit 40.000 nobody labeled it a bubble except a few
weirdos.'
Well, in Japan, maybe. In the west, nobody understood how growth rates
in the teens could support PE ratios around 100. In the end, it
couldn't.
'The truth is also, the majority is now seriously looking for valuation
models. By majority, I mean the mainstream institutionals who invest
more and more in tech and net, because of perf pressure and benchmarks
(Yahoo in SP)
My best guess is we'll start a major selection process, with leaders
commanding premiums and the others falling through the floor.'
Exactly! We are already seeing that with Amazon, now that higher sales
has failed to translate into smaller losses, and other E-tailers, who
throw VC money at customers in the vain hope they will come back, even
when somebody else has a better deal tomorrow (good luck).
'My view is that rate fears are completely overblown.'
There we disagree. I think the booming US economy will start to show
more normal signs - - higher interest rates, higher wages, inflation.
Regards
DanG
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