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-----Original Message-----
From: Judith Gledhill / Mark Oliver [mailto:gledhill@xxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, January 02, 2000 6:58 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx;
Subject: foreiign exchange some macro ideas going forward
A big hello to all real traders
happy new year best wishes for 2000
Well a few ideas for 2000 and they are in no particular order
1)sadly to say the euro agst the usd looks like we might see a significant
test of 0.9980
support come the turn of the year.....if we break 0.9970 and especially
0.9930 we could see a fall to 0.98 and even 0.95
the weakness of the euro is excerbated by euro jpy---- as japanese continue
repatration ahead of year end april 2000 a few jap funds are pulling out of
all offshore investments plus offshore stockmarket investment is incresing
buying presure of the jpy.
a big date is the g7 finace minister jan 7 and 8 i believe tentively
scheduled where the jpy strength will be discussed. I believe that if they
cant critically adress these issues we will see euro usd trade sharply lower
and eurojpy break 100 an d could reach 92/95 lvl
euro weakness is futher reenforced by euro stg as incrediable flows e.g
mammesman orange,now zurich re and sun alliance are making stg incrediably
strong
what can change all this is simple areversal of flow so if vodafone would
announce a significant cash portion in its bid you would see the fist big
turnaround in the euro
LONG TERM--- i like the euro and will be buying the eurousd on athe break of
1.0300,and 1.0450
eur jpy when it breaks 106.10
i think that trying to bottom pick these currencies is dangerous but in the
second half of the year i see the euro rallying significantly as us intrest
rates rise and slow the economy????
the ecb will rauise rates 50/75 pts this year
ythe event that will make the euro rally is if the us stockmkt starts to
record a few minus 300 point days in the dow and nasdaq then just buy euro
usd as its a very easy correlated trade.
NON EURO CURRENCIES
i like the commodity currencies especially aud i think with the olmpics
coming the aud will trest minumum 0.6750 and shud touch 0.6975 as higher
intrest rates come what we need is abig take off in the crb likewise the
canadian usd should test 1.42 and maybe 1.38/1.34 if the market gets carried
away,for the brave buy zar southafrican rand
the new zealand could rally if cb starts to raise rates
if oil starts to crap off in second half of year sell stg, sell nok and buy
sek agst it or the euro
anyways happy trading
you can follow some of my ideas on a tech page
www.paratechnics.pair.com
regards
mark oliver
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