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Although there are many Elliotticians who spend way too much time coming
up with new and fascinating rules about the market, I have always found
one easy way to look at it. I have banged my head against the wall long
enuf trying to pick tops, etc. If the recent rallies in the European and
US stock markets are not 3rd-wave-esque, I dont know what is.
Impulsiveness is a characteristic. I think that many of my peers, and to
a degree myself included, have tried too much to read between the lines
in Elliott's work. If 20% up in a couple of months on the SP500 is not
impulsive, nothing is. I do not have the counts down to perfection, but
there was a 1st wave after the Oct. 1998 lows, and maybe a running 2nd
wave, with this part of a third. Suggests that at some point next year,
we might have big trouble, but it is likely to come from much higher
levels.
Disclaimer - You can lose lots of money listening to me, but you will
lose even more wasting time reading the stupid arguments going back and
forth on this forum. Thank-you to Earl and a few others that are trying
to bring us back to analysis. Oh, and the good doctor does do that too.
Finally, my company has a publishing CTA, so I guess that makes this
SPAM (though my work is currently only sold to institutions).
EVERYBODY, have a happy, healthy, peaceful and wealthy new year!
Steve
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Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
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