[RT] Re: TBond Futures - NW

[nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Stig,
   Couldn't we have seen the 144 month (12 years) cycle this past October, ref. 12 years from
October 1987?
   As for the Heard & Shoulders, it takes two shoulders to make a H&S pattern. The shoulders should be at least as big, (at least in time) as the head. Studying your Bond chart, at best, I only see one  shoulder (our left). Neither alledged shoulder is anywhere as large as is the head.  Just my opinion.

                                                             NW T-Bond Update

   Watch for the 88 to 88-16 area to go long  T-Bonds in February. Market may bottom Feb. 6 - 10, but safest time to buy for a bounce will be circa Feb. 29 as there is likely to be a double bottom or at least two attempts at establishing the low. This is an update to my earlier forecast for a Feb. 29 low for T-Bonds and US financials. When I
posted this, I had overlooked that a close cousin to the the Feb. 29 event will occur on Feb. 6. This should set up a double bottom senario, i.e. Feb. 6 & Feb. 29.
Feb. 10-11 also looks very powerful for a change in trend for the markets. I guess this means that the Fed wiill raise interest rates when the FOMC meets in earlry Feb.

Bondingly,

Norman


Stig O wrote:

> In my opinion we have now had enough of "False" breakouts and we are now in for the real thing. We should be heading down and it could be wave 3, hence a rather steep decline - in line with the breakdown from the gigantic rising wedge from 1984 posted earlier.
> the gif you see was posted in October when the DEC TBond was trading 112.22 the close on Dec 21 1999 was  111.02. In other words, if we don't have a rally before years end, the breakdown of the large rising wedge put the odds in favor of declining prices in the future. and breakdowns out of rising wedges tend to be fast ones. (like a W:3s ).
>
> Now look at the Dec H6S gif and remember that the last low CLOSED 3 times below the first break of the neckline of the large Head and Shouldr pattern in  TBonds.
>
> Hence this pattern also indicates lower prices.
>
> please read on ...
>
> Stig
>
>   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>                         Name: Long wedge.gif
>    Long wedge.gif       Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>                     Encoding: base64
>
>                      Name: Dec H&S.gif
>    Dec H&S.gif       Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>                  Encoding: base64